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the platform and at the dinner-table when the coffee cups have come in he is full of amiable discourse, brilliant aneclote, and genial eloquence. No man presides at a banquet or a board meeting with a readier wit or with finer tact."

We have dwelt on this joyous, genial, yet always strong and sincere, side of Mr. Mabie's personality because it was necessarily less known to the general public than were his writings, and because it is so well brought out in this Life. In his critical capacity

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WHAT STARTED THE
REPUBLICAN AVALANCHE?

SPECIAL

CORRESPONDENCE BY MAIL AND

TELEGRAPH TO THE OUTLOOK FROM POLITICAL EXPERTS IN ALL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY

AN EMOTIONAL

ELECTORATE

CALIFORNIA

TELEGRAPHIC CORRESPONDENCE FROM CHESTER H. ROWELL, OF THE FRESNO "REPUBLICAN," TO THE OUTLOOK

HESTER H. ROWELL

THE

HE principal cause affecting the election result in California and neighboring States is doubtless the general reaction which produced the same result elsewhere. This reaction was based partly on facts and issues, but was mostly psycholog -cal. To illustrate: On an apparently un-elated matter California two years ago Hefeated bone-dry State prohibition by only a narrow majority, all cast in San Francisco, and elected a Legislature pledged to ratify the Eighteenth Amendnent. This year, with prohibition in the Constitution, the people, on referendum, lefeated by a huge majority a law lready passed by the Legislature for he enforcement of the Constitution. The same emotional transformation which made these two results possible

n two successive elections also accounts n large part for the reaction towards President Wilson's idealism and the ssues in which it was embodied. The people have voted for "business

as usual," and entertain the delusion that they can get it by voting for it. There was also, of course, the reaction against President Wilson personally, due to his obstinate tactlessness in the last Congress and to the bugaboo of autocracy. In general, California likes autocracy. It supported Johnson and Roosevelt enthusiastically. But it wants that autocracy emotional and crusading on the side of the people, not coldly intellectual on behalf of mere abstract right.

California, however, showed its usual independence of voting, as between President and Senator. Four years ago Hiram Johnson for Senator (on the Republican ticket) ran three hundred thousand ahead of Hughes for President. This year Shortridge (also Republican) for Senator ran three hundred thousand behind Harding for President. In any normal year Phelan, Democrat, would have been elected Senator.

Except among the narrow class of "highbrow" intellectuals, the election was not a solemn referendum on the League of Nations. The people in general were bored with the issue. What they wanted was a change of Adminis tration and lower taxes. Senator Johnson, the chief opponent of the League of Nations, is still the strongest political figure in California, but a large part of his choicest supporters have never agreed with him on this issue, and his candidate for the Senate, running on this issue, fell hundreds of thousands of votes behind his ticket, and behind the

vote which Johnson himself would have got running on the same issue.

Various local causes also contribute to the result. Attorney-General Palmer had brought, just before election, a suit to dissolve the popular Raisin Growers' Association. This confirmed central California and the fruit-growers generally in opposition to the Administration. Owing to the low Italian exchange, Sicilian lemons are displacing California lemons in the New York market. This gave renewed importance to the tariff question in southern California. A slump in rice had a similar effect in northern California and a slump in beans in the coast regions. Barley and figs produced a like effect in the districts growing them. Four years ago progressivism defeated Hughes in the West. This year Progressive leaders were included in the most partisan advocates of regular Republicanism. Whatever may be the case in the future, progressivism as an organized movement has ceased to exist in the State of its origin and principal triumphs.

Of alien groups, the Armenians were for Wilson on the mandate question, the Italians against him on Fiume, the Irish against the League of Nations for not freeing Ireland, and the Germans quiet but doubtless generally for Harding. The principal foreign question in California is naturally the Japanese one. Both candidates for Senator were radically anti-Japanese, and the antiJapanese alien land law passed by an overwhelming majority, as did a

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CHAMP CLARK OF MISSOURI REPRESENTATIVE

CALL IT AVALANCHE OR FLOOD, WHAT HAPPENED ON ELECTION DAY SWEPT FROM OFFICE THESE EMI

minor amendment imposing a United States poll tax on aliens and not on citizens, directed openly against the Japanese.

tions of 1918 forecast the outcome of 1920. It is difficult to sort out of the complex known as public opinion the great causes that move it, aside from the obvious appeals to group feelings. In 1916 the kept-us-out-of-war appeal

A VOTE OF. NO CONFI- dominated the prairie States. When

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the war came, many persons felt, rightly or wrongly, that the President must have known it was inevitable and that their votes had been obtained under false pretenses. The revulsion that then set in against Mr. Wilson was augmented after the war by members of the Expeditionary Force and their relatives who held the Administration responsible for lack of equipment growing out of failure to prepare. The impression spread that the President was impractical, autocratic, unwilling to

take counsel.

The discussion of the League Covenant confirmed this belief. The West had lost confidence in his leadership. It became suspicious of the Covenant, and finally turned strongly against it.

These impressions are the outcome of conversations with politicians and speakers who made it their business to know what people were thinking about. A characteristic instance was the Chautauqua at the little town of Beloit, in western Kansas. Four years ago, on

66

political day" the Republican politicians first learned that their National ticket was in danger. People flock to the Chautauqua from all the country round about. At every mention of President Wilson the cheers shattered the roof of

the tent. Last summer an eloquent Democratic speaker got absolutely no response to his picture of the President broken on the wheel of public service.

"My God!" he exclaimed. "Has it come to this, that Americans will not cheer their President?" And still the audience sat silent. Governor Allen, following him, referred to his defense of the League as able, and added: "But it left me unconvinced, as I see it has

EXTINCTION, IN THE JUDGMENT OF THE

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left you. ." Whereat there was tumultuous applause.

It was the universal testimony of speakers in the Southwest that audi ences were apathetic until the League of Nations was reached. Then people gave attention. In Missouri the Re publican candidate for Governor, Ar thur M. Hyde, undoubtedly was helped by the State-wide feeling that it was necessary to elect him to clean up a bad police and election situation in Kansas City. Yet his audiences re sponded chiefly to his discussion of the League. In Kansas organized labor centered an attack on Governor Allen for his industrial court. But his audiences were much more interested in the League than in the court. The hostility to the League was evident, but observ ers felt that the League was the vent for hostility to the Administration.

The personality of the Presidential candidates was absolutely subordinate. Governor Cox, however, was at the high point of public esteem in the West when he was nominated, Senator Har ding at the low point. Cox steadily de clined, while Harding mounted in pub lic estimation. It was common to hear Cox referred to as a ward politician. Harding's dignity, moderation, modesty, and readiness to accept advice made an increasingly favorable impression.

Other factors had even less influ ence. Numerous Western States, in cluding Kansas, Colorado, and Okla homa, already had woman suffrage There was no indication that in other States the vote of the women affected the result, except to make it more emphatic. At the outset prohibition promised a possible issue. But the re fusal of Governor Cox to champion the wet side made the wet issue fade. Racial appeals had no particular effect in the Southwest, where the German vote has been identified with the Republican party since the Civil War, and where the Irish are not a dominant force. The

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NENT PUBLIC SERVANTS (INCLUDING THREE MEMBERS OF THE SMITH FAMILY) WHOSE CHIEF TITLE TO VOTERS, WAS THAT THEY WERE DEMOCRATS

lump in wheat and live stock was lost ight of in the cataclysm. The situation was frozen long before the slump set in. The attempt to revive the progressiveeactionary division of 1912 failed because the people showed no interest. A good share of the progressive proramme had been enacted into law by he various State Legislatures. No reat progressive issue was in sight nd people were concerned with other hings. The cleavage still existed, but or the present was in abeyance.

So far as the Southwest was conerned, outside the Solid South, the Eage was set for a vote of no confience in the Democratic party, the Vilson Administration, and its chief olicy, the League of Nations. People arned to what they seemed to feel was e superior practical sense and admintrative talent of the Republican party nder a leader whose determination to eek counsel and move cautiously aproved itself to the popular mood.

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ness of the Republican victory cannot be ascribed to any positive virtue in the Republican candidate. Mr. Harding's majority was due solely to an aggrieved electorate bent on punishment.

Even in 1912, with the normal Republican vote split between Mr. Roosevelt and Mr. Taft, only three of the States of the Northwest went to Mr. Wilson. Minnesota and South Dakota were even then able to swing their vote to a Republican candidate-in both cases Mr. Roosevelt. And in 1916, with enthusiasm for an unbroken foreign policy rampant, only one State went over into the Democratic camp-North Dakota. That a district so thoroughly Republican should switch to a broken Democracy at this time was inconceivable. But political wiseacres were not prepared for the terribly earnest drubbing that came.

Everybody knew that Republicans, as a whole, would stick to the Grand Old Party. Few realized how unanimously the independent vote would join them.

And yet, considering the nature of the Democratic Administration, together with the fact that our population is largely agricultural and almost twenty-five per cent foreign-born, nothing should have been more clear.

The independent vote of all five States went almost in a body to the Harding camp. Some went as a protest against what they chose to call the "Wilson dynasty." Some went because of supposed discrimination against the farmers of the North. Some went as a protest against Democratic failure to remove restrictive war legislation. Some went because they were a part of the general progressive movement in the Northwest, which threw its influence into the Republican side of the scales in the National election.

On the other hand, the Democratic party, having lost most of its less sincere adherents, gained very few votes on the one outstanding issue of its

campaign. The voters either cared nothing about the League or they were satisfied with the possibility that moderate Republican opinion would force the new Administration to enter.

The alien vote went almost solidly to Harding. Citizens of German descent professed themselves disgusted with the "Wilson dynasty." The German press declared that no GermanAmerican who respected himself could vote for Mr. Cox, "the tool of Wilson." German papers pointed to the fact that Mr. Cox had helped eliminate German instruction from the schools of Ohio. They pointed to the fact that he favored the present Peace Treaty with Germany, which they termed "the crime of Versailles." To-day they are confident that no little share in the credit for Mr. Harding's election is due them. The Scandinavians likewise voted to punish Mr. Wilson. Minor alien groups were similarly actuated. Italians voted as a protest against Mr. Wilson's Adriatic stand. Poles voted against his RussoPolish policy.

The agricultural interests of the Northwest have long felt a discrimination at the hands of the Democratic party. They point to Democratic paternalism in the South, where the cotton interests were pampered. And then they figure up their grain receipts, which have shown a steady decline. They were willing, even eager, to trust their fate to a Republican régime. They were determined to put an end to a régime which could ignore their claims.

Thus business men, farmers, and workers-the latter haunted by the specter of workless days-joined to pile up an unprecedented majority for the Republican candidate. Only a few traditional Democrats, a few proponents of the League of Nations, a very few ultra-wets, and a sprinkling of those who felt that Mr. Cox was a more progressive man than Mr. Harding cast their votes for a continuation of the

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Democratic menage The League of Nations issue had little effect. The newly achieved right of the women to vote did little to change the balance. Prohibition was no issue. Punishment of Wilson was the keynote. Union on Republican candidates was the slogan.

In the Senatorial contests the results were the same. In every case Republicans were elected. Where the radical forces had a separate candidate in the field, defeat was his portion. Where Non-Partisan League support went to Republicans, victory came as a matter of course.

Radicalism, whether avowedly Socialist or camouflaged as Townley NonPartisanism, was roundly defeated. The Northwest is moving away from its radical leaders. Townley was everywhere defeated. La Follette has lost his power in Wisconsin. Even Victor L. Berger, twice elected to Congress and twice denied a seat in that body, was this time snowed under by the Republican avalanche.

The Northwest has tasted Democracy

and dislikes the taste. It has flirted with radicalism and recognizes its danger. It has gone back to the old fold, more unifiedly Republican than ever.

A VOTE OF MISTRUST THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TELEGRAPHIC CORRESPONDENCE FROM W. H. COWLES, OF THE SPOKANE SPOKESMANREVIEW," TO THE OUTLOOK

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ENATOR HARDING has carried the State of Washington by about 160,000 plurality over Cox, an estiate of the final vote based on the unofficial returns being 260,000 to 100,000. Christensen and Farmer-Labor candidates for State offices received a vote ranging from 80,000 to 115,000, about four-fifths of

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Roosevelt carried it in 1912 with 113,698, as against 86,840 for Wilson and 70,445 for Taft.

Washington State's remarkable "turnover" from a 16,000 Wilson plurality in 1916 to a 160,000 Harding plurality in 1920 is due most largely to profound discontent with the Wilson Administration.

The farmers were against him because he did not show as much concern in keeping the price of wheat where they could make a fair profit as he did in keeping the price of cotton where Southern planters could reap a huge profit; labor manifestly did not follow Gompers's indorsement of the Wilson Administration, as the big vote given Christensen proves; the merchant did not like Federal interference with business; the ordinary citizen did not like the high cost of living; and altogether I mistrust of the Wilsonian economic principles is believed to have caused Washington's reaction against continuing Democracy in power.

Voters of this State would cheerfully have accepted a League of Nations with proper reservations, but the League of Nations may not fairly be considered as having been an issue with voters here. Senator Harding's position was plainly understood as being not hostile to a friendly association of nations to prevent future wars. It was understood that he was against the Wilson League, but not against a League for world peace that will permit "America to go in under American ideals."

Prohibition had much influence, with

out doubt, for the voters here in great preponderance are entirely satisfied with the dry régime which was voted in

ME

THE EBB AND FLOOD OF

1914. Washington was one of the pio neer States in banishing alcohol. How ever, the closeness of the Canadian border to the great cities of the State has complicated enforcement of its dry laws. A President who might not hold up the strict provisions of the Volstead Act is not wanted at the White House, as far as Washington's voters are con cerned. The impression has been widespread that Cox would possibly be inclined to leniency; his Ohio record was well circularized over the State by AntiSaloon League advocates, and the voters also had not forgotten Bryan's epi taph: "The smell of the beer vats onl his garments." The whisky ring of the State showed much concern for Co The largest single contributor to the National campaign of either party by any individual within this State was sent to Cox's New York headquarters by a former Spokane liquor dealer.

Women's suffrage did not enter into the contest in this State at all. Wash ington also ranks as one of the pioneer women's suffrage States, voting equal suffrage to women in 1910.

In 1916 the Progressive voters showed a marked defection to Wilson, but the last four years have taught them the fallacy of expecting any pro gressivism from Wilson, Burleson, Palmer, et al. The Progressives all back with Harding, with isolated exceptions.

were

The interest of racial and alien groups was an inconsiderable factor. The alien population of this State is comparatively small.

Traditional party differences may be ignored in calculating the causes for Washington's landslide. The State has proved in the past that it is independent-thinking, politically. It turned to Harding because it believes he, a wellchosen Cabinet, and a Republican Cogress can properly and honorably sole international problems and produce an Administration that will greatly ameliorate domestic conditions.

Senator Jones appears to have ru fully up to Senator Harding, if he did not, in fact, exceed the Harding plurality over his Democratic rival. Senator

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Jones has represented Washington at the National capital twenty-two years, and would probably have been reelected without the Republican landslide. It may be questioned if any of the issues affecting the Presidential contest added to or subtracted from Jones's vote.

VOTE-IT-STRAIGHT
INDEPENDENTS

MICHIGAN AND THE MIDDLE WEST

SPECIAL CORRESPONDENCE FROM ARTHUR W. STACE, OF THE GRAND RAPIDS "PRESS," TO THE OUTLOOK

M

ICHIGAN gave Harding a plurality of nearly half a million votes because of general dissatisfaction over existing governmental and economic conditions. Platform issues had very little to do with it. Michigan undoubt edly would have gone strongly Republican had it voted early in June before either major party convention was held.

Indeed, Michigan may be said to have gone overwhelmingly Republican in spite of the party platform and in spite of the choice of Harding as nominee, for there was no real enthusiasm over the Chicago declaration of principles, while the selection of Harding as standard-bearer was a distinct disappointment. There was no manifest Harding sentiment in the State before the Convention, and scarcely any more during the campaign. Harding pictures in windows were so rare as to be novelties.

A year ago Michigan as a whole was strong for the League of Nations. Later interest waned and as a political issue it caused scarcely a ripple among the voters of the State. There is no doubt, however, that Republican explanations of the reservations made it easier for the many friends of the League to vote against it in President Wilson's referendum. They probably would have voted against it, anyway, for the League of Nations issue appeared to be a minor consideration with the mass of voters. They were ready to overlook the pleas

in its behalf in order to get the domestic governmental change, with its hoped-for betterment of general conditions affecting them more directly. The record of the Wilson Administration was so interwoven in this that it was an outstanding cause for the Republican landslide. Party preference was responsible for its usual share of votes, but Michigan voters are yearly becoming more and more independent in their political thinking, and party preference was not a controlling factor at the polls.

The vote-it-straight sentiment was notably strong throughout the State, but it would be a mistake to say that this was this was due to deep-seated party preference of the old dyed-in-the-wool type.

Nor did progressivism have much to do with the result. The progressive spirit is strong in Michigan,. as was evinced in the memorable three-cornered election of eight years ago, when it gave Roosevelt a plurality over Taft. Michigan didn't regard Harding as progressive in thought or tendencies. That is why it was lukewarm toward his candidacy. It gave a Republican plurality of nearly half a million in spite of its knowledge of Harding's reactionary affiliations.

Racial and alien groups were scarcely in evidence in the campaign in Michigan. The tariff and other stock party issues aroused practically no discussion among the voters themselves.

The women in casting their ballots apparently were moved by the same general reasons that caused the mass of the men to go Republican. There was no one issue that made them supporters of Harding. There was the broad and compelling desire for a change in the hope that the change would check Governmental waste and make for tax reductions.

This desire brought out a Republican flood in Michigan that not only gave Harding a big plurality but also swept into Congress a solid Republican delegation and into the State Legislature a solid Republican House and Senate.

One factor that contributed impress

ively to bringing out a big vote in Michigan was the proposed antiparochial school amendment to the State Constitution, which was defeated by a majority of more than 200,000. Interest in this issue was fully as keen as interest in the National election.

THE NATIONAL SWEEP AGAINST WILSONISM

THE EAST

SPECIAL CORRESPONDENCE FROM STATE SENATOR FREDERICK M. DAVENPORT, OF THE CHAIR OF CIVIL POLITY, HAMILTON COLLEGE, NEW YORK, TO THE OUTLOOK

Nall over, I am

ow that it is

not able to see how essentially the East differs from the West, or, indeed, from a part of the South. It is all of a piece. Leaving out of account certain belated and backward parts of the South, politically and progressively speaking, the people of the country have rendered an overwhelming verdict against the Wilson Administration. The early years of

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(C) Prince, New York F. M. DAVENPORT

were

President Wilson's first term marked by the enactment of certain great and beneficial measures of advance which had already ripened in public opinion, and the country gratefully acknowledged the part which the President played in their passage. When gigantic new problems arose with the war, the Administration at Washington faltered and bungled. The President's mind, in grappling with the issues of the Great War, has seemed to the American people to reveal itself in the phase of the emotional idealist, without practical vision and without capacity for practical leadership into the difficult and the unknown. This the country felt at the same time that it gave the President credit for integrity of purpose and for deep desire to perform his duty as he saw it, even to

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