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THE COMMENT OF A MILITARY MAN

This also will change dates in the terrible programme.

It is quite probable that even with the above changes the Germans will invest and, possibly, occupy Paris. The taking of many Belgian and French strongholds to date indicates two things-an overwhelming attack in which the new German siege gun and the eleven-inch siege mortars must have been used in large numbers, and a lack of the qualities of the badger and woodchuck on the part of the French. Paris is the strongest fortified city on earth-or thought to be. The Germans may capture it, but it is not believed that a German army would occupy Paris in this war if her fortifications were in the hands of either the English or the Russians.

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Whether the Germans occupy Paris or the Russians capture Berlin will have little immediate effect on the ultimate solution. Run did not defeat the North. The South fought for two long years after Gettysburg and Vicksburg. The loss of great battles and important cities will not end this war. The loss of their capitals would be a blow to the pride of both nations and would have a certain moral effect on the mass of the inhabitants; but the only thing that will end this titanic struggle will be that which brought the Civil War to a close-the cutting off of supplies of food and munitions of war and the complete exhaustion and practical annihilation of the armies of one side or the other. Which is it going to be? France and England and Russia can wage bitter war for months, or even years, after Paris is captured; Germany can fight many terrible battles after Berlin is in the hands of the Russians.

From a disinterested and unprejudiced study of this most interesting problem, taking into consideration the preparedness for war of the contestants, the length of time necessary for the Allies to mobilize their full strength, the question of equipping reserves, the manufacture of munitions and material of war, the transportation of food and troops, and especially the personal equation of all the nations engaged, it is not seen how the war can ultimately end other than disastrously to Germany. The world is mistaken if it chinks that England went into this struggle without being fully determined to fight to the death if necessary to win. Fortunately for England-and the Allies-probably the finest type of the British bull dog soldier she has ever produced is in the saddle-Kitchener.

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England has control, not only of the Channel, but of all the oceans, and is free to transport her war levies from Australia, Canada, and India. We may yet see the strange spectacle of a quarter of a million Indian troops fighting in France; and as this is an age of wonders, little Japan might loan a few hundred thousand men to the Allies, just to get even with the Kaiser for 1893.

If the Allies were possessed of the wellnigh perfect system of organization and supply that the German General Staff has evolved for the armies of Germany, the latter would not be so near Paris. Had we such a system and war was declared, it would work something as follows: In New York City, for instance, every man belonging to the various reserves ordered out would report at once to the storehouse where his equipment is kept. Giving his name to a clerk, he is handed a bundle of clothing; this contains two field uniforms complete-two coats, two pairs of trousers, two pairs of leggings, two pairs of marching shoes, one hat, two suits of underclothes, four pairs of socks, housewife, blankets, blanket-roll, etc. All articles are of the correct size, selected, tried on, and put away for this soldier, with his name tag on the bundle. It also contains a brass tag bearing his official number, which he wears next his body, suspended from his neck by a cord. He then repairs to a dressingroom, puts on a uniform, makes up his fieldroll with all the other articles, ties up his civilian clothing, and hands it to the clerk to put away for him. The man would then go to his armory, either the same building where his outfit is kept or elsewhere, and draw his rifle, belts, and ammunition, and would then be ready to march with his company or regiment to entrain. In the cities regiments would be ready to march in from four to six hours. In country districts it would take from twelve to twenty-four hours.

Germany has a complete field outfit ready for every able-bodied man by name, and every man knows where to go to get it in the least possible time after the call goes forth. She probably had two millions of men on the way to her frontiers within twenty-four hours after war was seen to be inevitable. Going to the frontier in Germany is like going to Albany or Montauk Point from New York. Every able-bodied man in the Empire is a trained soldier. In being able quickly to equip and mobilize her reserves for defensive or offensive warfare Germany is far ahead.

The rapidity with which the Germans have reduced and captured the forts around Liège, Namur, and other fortified cities that were in their way would indicate that they must have a large number of heavy caliber siege guns and mortars with the attacking force. They must use at least nine-inch guns and eleven-inch mortars. The guns have their own carriages, and their transportation over the excellent roads of Europe is a simple matter. The taking of the siege mortar with an invading army is more difficult, and the German transport service must resort to the use of large platforms on wheels which they move over the macadam roads by steam or motor engines, or, what is more likely, they are probably four-tracking the railway supply lines, thus enabling the artillery force to mount this heavy ordnance on huge platforms laid on flat cars and moved at will into position where it can be unloaded and planted for attack. The effective range of these siege mortars is from six to nine miles; they throw an armor-piercing shell which weighs about eight hundred pounds, and it can be readily seen that a rain of these interesting missiles would make any but the hardiest troops desire a change of station, especially as their accuracy of fire at seven miles is within a few feet.

Both sides have undoubtedly suffered enormous losses, but our newspapers should avoid the ridiculous and exaggerated statements that have been appearing recently. One day last week the papers stated that the Germans

had destroyed three Russian corps of 120,000 men and had captured 70,000. In the complete rout of the Russian army at Mukden the Japanese captured only about 30,000, and in the Civil War the North lost in killed but a little over 100,000 in the whole four years. It would be a human impossibility to destroy 120,000 men in one battle. A loss of twenty per cent in killed and wounded is about all that seasoned troops will stand before giving way, and ten per cent is a frightful loss.

The newspapers recently printed a despatch saying that the French were impressed by the coolness of the British soldiers under fire because they went into battle smoking their pipes.

This is no uncommon occurrence in both the British and American armies. In hard service of any kind parade-ground discipline is largely laid aside, and especially in battle a soldier is allowed to do almost anything that will keep up his nerve, keep him going towards the enemy and keep his rifle popping. He can smoke, swear, or even take a drink if he can get it, so long as he keeps going in the right direction. It is a common thing to see American soldiers smoking under fire, and "Dutch courage" is a common nickname for liquor. In the fight at El Caney, Santiago, Cuba, in 1898, the story was told that General Chaffee had half of his cigar shot away by a Spanish sharpshooter, at which discourtesy the General expressed his opinion of that Spaniard in no uncertain terms.

GERMANY AND TURKEY

BY A RETIRED OFFICER OF THE GERMAN ARMY Some critics have said that Germany is inciting Turkey to enter the European conflict against the Allies because she is willing to stoop to anything to win. The following article is of interest because it defines the alliance of Germany and Turkey as a perfectly natural one. The author is a widely traveled and highly accomplished officer of the German army now living in the United States, having reached the age of retirement. His argument is that, if the Allies win, Turkey looks forward to a loss of Constantinople. But he does not make it clear how Turkey can preserve Constantinople—except in a very nominal and pro forma way— if Germany dominates Europe.-THE EDITORS.

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SEEMINGLY new factor has recently entered into European calculations of the war. The German battleships in the Mediterranean, the Goeben and the Breslau, took refuge in the Dardanelles ;

reports said they were sold to Turkey; even the price was named. Then we read news of German sailors and ammunition sent by way of Bulgaria to Constantinople; next of 800 German officers and men going the same

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way. The Turkish army is mobilized; a Turkish army of the first line of 200,000 men all Mohammedans, is formed; a body of 72 German superior officers is incorporated in the Turkish army.

In a very few days Turkey, although she denies it, is expected to declare war against Russia, and a general uprising of the Mohammedan world is within the possibilities.

The "Balkan War" is a sort of permanency in Europe. Since the fall of the East Roman Empire and the taking of Constantine's capital Turkey has been a power of varying strength in Europe. Step by step the Turks advanced northward, spreading terror wherever they came, until, in 1683, when they besieged Vienna, they were driven back by Sobieski's Poles and some German regiments. Since then there has been a "Balkan War" whose flames sometimes sprang high up, at other times were secretly smoldering under the ashes. Such events as the Crimean War and the last Russo-Turkish War and the latest uprising in the Balkans are episodes only in the European efforts to reduce and finally drive out Turkey from Europe. Yet, though his holdings of territory in Europe have dwindled down to very little, the "Sick Man" is still in possession of that wonderful place, Constantinople, on the Bosphorus. When the Turk has to leave Constantinople and go back to Asia, whence he came, who shall be his heir and successor ? Constantinople is the bridge between Europe and Asia. It leads to the lands of those teeming millions of people, industrious and intelligent, whose dreaming and whose work have for many centuries contributed to European wealth, to our philosophy and our religions, to our arts, our poetry, our architecture. They still send us the products of their industry-their wonders of silks, of embroideries, of rugs, of porcelains, and a hundred other things. To them we owe Our oranges and our peaches, our coffee and tea, our sugar and spices, as well as our fairy tales. Such is the land of Arabia and Persia and India and China. It is the land of our dreams and our desires.

No wonder that Constantinople, the bridge to all this, is jealously watched by the nations of Europe, for it will bring new wealth and power to the successor of the present régime.

Three great Powers are competitors for this succession, and whenever one of them seems to get nearer to the coveted goal the other two will be her bitter enemies. In the

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first place, there is Russia. The possession of the Bosphorus by Russia would open the door for her fleet and her commerce of the Black Sea into the Mediterranean and the Atlantic Ocean. It would make Odessa a great center almost at once. Even now, without the free passage to the sea, Odessa is the greatest harbor and commercial town in Russia.

The fact that the Balkan peninsula is inhabited principally by Slavic tribes who, though all the time in bitter strife among one another, are of the same Russian Greek religion, makes Pan-Slavism an excellent pretext to Russia for trying again and again to gain territory there and approach Constantinople. nople. After Sebastopol, her fortress in the Crimea, had fallen in 1851, and she had to yield to her enemies England, France, Italy, and Turkey, she tried again in 1878. With the help of Rumania she advanced victoriously far south, and hoped to dictate the terms of peace in the Treaty of San Stefano in the very outskirts of Constantinople; but Disraeli sent an English fleet into the Dardanelles and frustrated Russia's intentions. Bismarck called the Powers to convene in Berlin, and peace was established in the Treaty of Berlin. England acquired Cyprus. Eventually Austria got Bosnia and Herzegovina. Germany gained in prestige without having drawn her sword. Pan-Slavism had to wait. Germany wanted peace.

England could wait. Holding Gibraltar and Malta, and Egypt, Cyprus, and the Suez Canal, she was master in the Mediterranean and controlled the shortest way to India and China.

With Germany as a friend of Austria and of Turkey, an actively helping friend, whose advice and example and whose officers led them to improve their armies and defend their possessions against the pressure from East and West, the necessity of uniting dawned on England and Russia. Constantinople could never be wor by either of them as long as Germany had to be reckoned with. And so the unnatural alliance of the two old enemies was achieved, and France was easily attracted as a very desirable third by the hope of having her revenge for 1870.

The three watched for their opportunity, and it came along with the Serajevo incident. Servia intended to cause an uprising of the Slavs in Austria, and knew Russia would support her. The result was the great European war. It is really an Oriental war. When and where will it end?

Redondo Beach

Public Library.

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A JAPANESE VIEW

BY K. K. KAWAKAMI

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AUTHOR OF ASIA AT THE DOOR," AMERICAN JAPANESE RELATIONS," ETC.

HE characterization by Mr. Bullard, The Outlook's war correspondent, of the Japanese ultimatum to Germany "brutal and provocative" is not quite right. Taken in itself, the ultimatum does indeed sound brutal, but to understand Japan's course of action in the present case we must take into consideration Germany's attitude towards Japan during the past twenty years.

Most people know how Germany treated Japan at the end of the Chino-Japanese War, which cost Japan a hundred thousand lives and a billion dollars. But few Americans know that Germany's interference with the Chino-Japanese peace terms was only the first of many unpleasant experiences which Japan has had with Germany.

In the war against China Japan was convinced of the justice of her cause. When the war came to an end, therefore, Japan thought she could demand of China the cession of the Liaotung Peninsula without violating the dictates of justice. But Germany, perhaps anxious to ingratiate herself with the Czar, peremptorily ordered Japan out of the peninsula. To my mind that advice was far more

"brutal" than the Japanese advice recently given Germany. On the day the peace treaty was signed between China and Japan all Japan was celebrating; the next day the whole country was in mourning because of that German advice. Not that Japan was sorry to part with the newly acquired peninsula, but because her pride and her sense of honor were outraged by the overbearing attitude of Germany. The German advice was far more peremptory than the French and Russian notes on the same occasion. The Kaiser's note, in its original form, even asserted that Japan could not afford to disregard the counsel of such a powerful country as Germany. And the masterful manner in which the German Ambassador presented it to the Foreign Department is still a topic of gossip in Tokyo.

When Germany occupied Kiaochau on a slight pretext, she had a secret understanding

with Russia, in virtue of which the Czar was free to occupy the Liaotung Peninsula, the self-same territory from which the Kaiser and Czar compelled Japan to withdraw only two years before. You can well imagine how chagrined Japan was.

The German seizure of Kiaochau, followed by the Russian occupation of the Liaotung, the English occupation of Weihaiwei, and the French occupation of Kwanchau Bay, were largely responsible for the Boxer disturbance of 1900. When the Boxers besieged the Legation quarters in Peking, Japan proposed to the Powers that she be permitted to rush her troops to rescue the beleaguered foreigners. The Kaiser put his foot upon Japan's proposal, and insisted that unless Japan could guarantee that her action would by no means interfere with the interests of other Powers he could not accept the proposal. Such incidents clearly show the Kaiser's mental attitude towards Japan.

During the Boxer disturbance Russia was scheming to add Manchuria to her own map, and it was an open secret that the Kaiser was encouraging this ambition of the Czar's. About this time the London "Times" published an article reporting the existence of a secret treaty by which the Kaiser was to render clandestine assistance to the Czar in the event of a Russo-Japanese war.

While Japan was measuring swords with Russia, Germany's attitude towards the Muscovite Empire was the virtual violation of neutrality. The Berlin Government permitted a German steamship company to sell a number of steamships to the Russian navy and to help Rozestvenski's Baltic squadron secure coal en route to the Japan Sea. What was more surprising, a German officer who was by Japan's special courtesy permitted to accompany the Japanese army to the front was found secretly reporting to his Government the activities of the Mikado's forces without the permission of the censoring officers.

To say that Japan is, in the present juncture, actuated solely by sense of obligation towards the treaty of alliance with England

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BENEDICT XV

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article of August 9. Japan has acted in this matter in entire accord with the traditions of European international usage. Her actions seem to me to have been as brutal and provocative as Austria's toward Servia. England has taken Egypt and Cyprus, France has taken Morocco, with just as unsportsmanlike disregard for the fact that their opponents were helpless. If Japan desires any further precedent to justify her attitude, she can refer to the way in which Germany took Kiaochau from China in the first place.ARTHUR BULLARD.]

BENEDICT XV

The following article was prepared for The Outlook at its request by a Roman Catholic ecclesiastic-an American pastor and writer who has studied the questions involved, both at home and abroad. -THE EDITORS.

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enslave Europe, he will have to contend with the same arrogant spirit that created the Falk Laws and the Kulturkampf. Should the Allies prove victorious, Rome will be most intimately brought in contact with the overwhelming power of the Greek Orthodox Church, its most deadly enemy. The triumph of Russia will sound the death knell of Roman Catholicism in eastern Europe. Either alternative will certainly require the exercise of the shrewdest diplomacy on the part of the Papacy, for there will no longer be the prestige of a great Catholic power like Austria to give it material backing.

ture.

What the intellectual condition of Europe will be after the war no man can say. Harnack has proclaimed that the struggle is really between Teutonic and Muscovite culIt is a new thought to us, at any rate, that the world that has successively passed under the intellectual yoke of Greek and Latin, Celt and Teuton, should come to be dominated by the Slav. But it is in the range of possibilities, and, in the event of Russian victory, of probabilities. One fact is prominent in this war, and that is the appeal to God. Prussian atheism has made that appeal as well as Christian England, while infidel France immediately suspended the decrees of expulsion issued against certain religious communities, and the mobilizing troops welcomed with affection the car-loads of nuns who were hurried with them to the front to serve as nurses. All the world must

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