than ten per cent. lower than it would have been with a supply at eleven.

It will not be necessary to carry this illustration farther, though it will be obvious that, in the case of excess of supply beyond demand, the depreciation will be much greater in a commodity that is quickly perishable, than in one that will retain its properties for a long period. Even in articles that lose none of their virtues by being preserved, but from their bulk require considerable space, the depreciation will be greater than in those which are more easily removed or stored at less expense. Thus potatoes have felt a much greater depreciation than wheat from their perishable nature; and, from being bulky, when raised at a distance from a large town or a populous district, they have not borne even the expense of conveyance to the consumers. The prices of commodities are also influenced in some measure, and occasionally in a considerable degree, by the prevalence of public opinion, as to the proportion between demand and supply; and, in articles of the first necessity, to a greater extent than in those of inferior consideration. This influence, however, is of a transient kind; and the opinion on which it is grounded is generally corrected before any very injurious effect is produced.

From the great variety in soil and climate within this island, the produce of our harvests generally does not vary so much as a slight observer would suppose. The wet seasons, which are injurious to our cold and heavy soils, are beneficial to those of the opposite description; and a summer of great drought, which parches the lighter soils, and lessens their productions, increases those of the heavier soils. There will, however, be variations in productiveness, but usually not to a great extent. Perhaps on a large average of years, not including one or two of very uncommon character, it will be found that, taking the standard as twenty, in the best years their production may have reached twenty-three, and the worst, not fallen short of seventeen; and that most of our harvests have been at some period between seventeen and twenty-three. If the views we have taken be tolerably correct, we may presume that for the past twenty years, if our production has been as twenty, our consumption may be estimated as twenty-one; and this estimate will be confirmed by the excess of our importation beyond our exportation of corn for that period, as shown by the public documents.

Previously to the year 1811 there had been for several years a gradual increase in the prices of corn, such as must have happened if, as in every other country, the population had a little preceded in its march the production of food. This increase had given a stimulus to agriculture; the capital which had accumulated in that branch of industry had been invested in making further improvements; some extraneous capital also was attracted into the same channel, and in consequence a greater portion of labor was exercised in cultivation than it had before received. The harvest of 1811 was miserably deficient; and, before one half of it was threshed, the deficiency became obvious; prices rose with rapi

dity, and to a height scarcely ever known before. The advance in price came too late to produce much influence on the ensuing harvest. Some spring wheat indeed was sown; but its effect in aiding national subsistence was trifling, as the same land would probably have produced more food, if, as usual, barley, and not spring wheat, had succeeded to turnips.

The deficiency of the harvest of 1811 was not made up by that of 1812, which probably reached the average of our usual production, or onetwentieth less than our consumption. The same price thus continued, and, appearing to be almost permanently fixed at a rate that would pay the most expensive cultivation, it gave a stimulus to still greater agricultural exertions; no cost was spared in the purchase of manures; every portion of land capable of bearing corn was appropriated to that purpose; the usual and regular courses of cropping were generally deviated from; and a breadth of land sown, far exceeding what had ever before been done. Potatoes, which had borne a higher relative price than corn, were cultivated also to an extent before unknown.

The year 1813 proved highly propitious; all the different species of corn were favored by the seasons, whose variations seemed exactly executed as if to promote abundant vegetation; the weather whilst harvesting this crop was unusually favorable; and this bountiful supply, housed under such happy circumstances, proved as good in quality, as it was excessive in quantity. But the impression of its abundance upon the public exceeded the reality.

It is extremely difficult to estimate the quantum of excess in this year of singular character. As far as pretty extensive enquiry, and not inattentive observation, may enable us, we may attempt the calculation without the fear of erring very materially. Most of the farmers on poor lands, whose usual growth of wheat had been twenty bushels to the acre, in that year allow that their growth amounted to from twenty-four to twenty-five bushels; those on better lands usually producing twenty-four to twenty-six, produced from thirty to thirty-two bushels, and on the very best wheat lands some have stated their excess above the usual production to amount to eight bushels. Allowing difficulty of accuracy, and requesting that indulgence which the nature of the case requires, it will not be deemed presumptuous to estimate this great production at twenty-six, taking, as before, the average production as twenty, and the consumption as twenty-one: this will account, if tolerably accurate, for an enormous depreciation in price. The happy events which led to the peace followed each other in quick succession. Soon after our harvest was securely housed, the foreign ports were opened as well as our own, and a large importation of foreign corn was made. The words peace and plenty have been so commonly joined together that the public expected some union by which one must necessarily produce the other; as if a magical operation was to be performed by the cessation of war, by which either the earth was to become more fertile, or the physical necessity for food become lessened.

Partly from the clamors of the populace, partly

from the state of the foreign exchanges, and, perhaps, partly because the measure originated with their political opponents, the alterations in the corn laws, which it was afterwards found necessary to make, were protracted by ministers till the greatest mischief was effected; and then, when too late to be of any service, they were enacted amidst as much popular confusion as could have happened had it been done at the proper period.

Notwithstanding the surplus quantity of corn produced by the harvest of 1813, the markets would not have been so ruinously depressed if the law had protected the grower early against the foreign competitors. A sufficient number would have retained their stock, or at least a part of it, till a more distant period; but, seeing no check on the foreign corn, and dreading a larger quantity than even could be imported, each rushed to the market, the produce rapidly fell, till at last it seemed permanently settled at a price from thirty to fifty per cent. below its actual cost. Those farmers who were obliged to sell, and who are the far greater proportion of the body, when they wanted money to pay their rent, taxes, and laborers, were under the necessity of selling a double quantity, to realise the usual sum; and thus a glut was produced, which has been attended with the most serious consequences. The harvest of 1814 was by no means abundant in quantity, and the quality of the wheat was so bad in general, and yielded so little flour, that it may be fairly estimated below the average rate of our production. The surplus of the preceding great harvest, and the quantity imported, which was increased by the expectation that the corn bill would raise the price, were sufficient for the consumption of the year, but left a very small stock on hand to meet the future wants of the country. The harvest which followed, in 1815, was a month earlier than our harvests usually are; and from the surplus of the great harvest, from the imported quantity, and from the harvest of 1814, instead of twelve not more than eleven months' provision had been consumed, when the next harvest commenced.

The very low price at which wheat was sold, now increased the consumption very considerably; and the inferior qualities of it, which would produce but little at the market, were used for fattening cattle, and for other purposes to which wheat was never applied before. Thus a degree of profusion in the use of it has rendered the surplus quantity of little avail towards supplying any future scarcity that may occur.

The harvest of 1815, which has been before stated to have taken place a month earlier than usual, found us with a small quantity of foreign wheat of an indifferent quality in the granaries at the sea ports, and but a small stock in the hands of the grower, probably not more than sufficient for our consumption to the usual period at which our corn is harvested. The productiveness of the harvest of 1815 most certainly was below the average of our consumption, at least if the whole may be judged of from the southern parts of the island; but still the markets became lower, not from abundance, but from the impoverished condition of the cultivators. At an unusually

early period a great quantity of new corn was produced in the markets; the pressing demands for money could only be met by sacrificing at less than half the cost the greater part of the year's production and even that became insufficient to satisfy only the most pressing wants; the inferior wheats could not be sold at any rate; the prices were so low that only wheat of the best quality would suit the palates even of the poor; and accordingly at this early period there is felt a scarcity of the finest kinds of wheat. The same profusion of the inferior descriptions has continued; and the probability is that, before the harvest arrives, a sensible deficiency will be discovered. Thus from the alarm produced by an expectation of enormous importation of foreign corn, added to a surplus at home, our own prices have been reduced so low as to bring ruin on many cultivators, and a loss of capital to all, which, whatever may be the future demand, must prevent them from bestowing on the land that labor which can alone enable it to produce nearly sufficient for our subsistence.

If the corn-bill (of 1815) passed in the last session of parliament, had been enacted when it was first proposed, it is probable that the price would have been kept at nearly its cost, notwithstanding the surplus quantity. The general profusion in the use of corn would not have taken place; some of the surplus would have been stored to meet future periods of scarcity; and the land whose culture is now slighted, and neglected, would have been kept up to that full power of production, which is now from the loss of capital gradually diminishing.

2. On the present and future effects of the depression of agriculture. It is not unusual to hear those who have paid but slight attention to the nature of agriculture express their surprise that a year or two of actual loss, should be productive of so much distress as is complained of at present; especially when following years in which the cultivators have gained large profits. They ask, cannot those who during several years have gained on the amount of their capital a larger share of profit than other members of the community endure the discontinuance of that profit, or even some loss, without suffering more than has been inflicted on their neighbours?

It may not be amiss in the first place to remark that, in those years in which the produce of the land has borne the highest prices, they have seldom been very much raised till a large part of the growth of the more numerous portion, the poorer farmers, had passed from their hands into those of the corn merchant, the factor, or the meal-man; and, therefore, those who most needed have been the least benefited by such high prices. The fact is that the smaller class of farmers are under the necessity of selling their produce early; long before the deficiency is apparent; and therefore never can have the full benefit which the richer part of the profession, the smaller number, may sometimes gain. Very high prices of produce, such as were obtained three or four years ago, have been occasioned by crops deficient either in quantity or quality; and then such advanced prices amounted to but little more on the whole growth