The hopes stimulated by the previous figures were crushed by these results; the falling-away is remarkable, and commenced abruptly with the first year of the period, affecting ten of the fourteen subdivisions-unfortunately those in which an opposite movement was most to be desired. Arts and sciences lost more than all the gain of the previous period, and sank to the lowest ebb hitherto recorded. Fiction not merely regained the loss of the previous period, but made a startling advance on any earlier record. The only satisfactory feature is the continued growth of the subdivision 'Educational and Classical,' showing a genuine response to the demands of scholastic work. The figures of the subdivisions are, taking new books only:

For the three years 1890-2, the figures to be expected were:

The continued decline affects seven of the fourteen subdivisions, three others only escaping with slight increases; arts and sciences. show a further deplorable falling away; juvenile books continue to drop, notwithstanding continually increasing school attendances; educational works still respond to the spread of schools; while fiction goes up again with leaps and bounds. The figures for these subdivisions are, for new books only:

Before leaving this analysis it is of interest to notice the remark

able advance, during the whole period, in the subdivision 'Miscellaneous and Pamphlets, not Sermons; the averages for the five periods are 149, 218, 224, 382, 604, and harmonise remarkably with the general drift away from solid, and in the direction of more scrappy and discursive literature.

Summarising these results, the growth or decline of the periods tested may be shown in percentages; the comparison being made with the figures of the previous period, with addition for increases of population and school attendances.

On comparing the actual figures of 1870 and 1892, remembering that the increase of the population over school age during the period was 29.77 per cent., the results are:

These figures appear to afford unanswerable evidence that the sanguine expectations as to the results that would accrue from the Elementary Education Act have not yet been justified: the latent literary genius has not been discovered, the demand for literature has not increased. The drift has been away from solid and instructive works, and towards fiction; this drift has been most marked during the last eight years. Sir Herbert Maxwell's opinion-that literature, whether judged by quantity or quality, was never more prosperous— seems to be singularly contrary to the evidence of facts; while Mr. Balfour's glowing forecast of a coming age of literature more glorious than any that has preceded it appears to be doomed to melancholy

disappointment; the opinion which he challenged and deprecated seems to be confirmed-that we live in a barren age which bears on it the marks of decadence.

The questious arise, What has been the cause of this decline in the quantity of the best books? and this growth of the demand for fiction?

It might be suggested that free libraries have diminished the number of book buyers; although it, perhaps, is a more sound argument that so far as free libraries increase the number of readers, they will increase the number of buyers. That free libraries do not explain the problem is capable of almost conclusive argument. The movement was fairly satisfactory up to the close of the 1880-4 period; from then the decadence has taken place. The Free Libraries Act was passed in 1850, and was amended in 1855, 1865, and 1871. Before 1850 a few special Acts were passed for particular boroughs. Before 1880 eighty-five boroughs established free libraries. Omitting eight, the dates of which are not generally known, Warrington in 1848, and Salford in 1849, led the movement. Between 1850 and 1860 sixteen boroughs followed, including Liverpool and Manchester, Westminster and Canterbury, Oxford and Cambridge. Between 1860 and 1870 fifteen boroughs followed, including Birmingham, Leeds, Nottingham, Wolverhampton, Cardiff, and Dundee. Between 1870 and 1880 the pace accelerated, and thirty-four boroughs joined the movement, including Bradford, Bristol, Chester, Derby, Leicester, Newcastle, Plymouth, Preston, Shields, Wigan, and Worcester; so that the country was, before 1880, studded with free libraries, and yet the period 1880-4 is the only one that shows a really satisfactory growth in literature. It cannot be argued that free libraries caused the decadence.

It is sometimes said that the discussion of all the interesting problems of knowledge and conduct in the monthly reviews has withdrawn attention from the more solid forms of literature. That this, however, is not the explanation can be easily proved. The reviews referred to were in existence, and for many years were widely circulated while the growth of literature was rapid and satisfactory. The decadence commenced in 1885. ment of the chief monthlies were:

1830. Longman's Magazine 1832. Chambers's Journal

1859. Macmillan's Magazine 1860. Cornhill Magazine

Good Words

1864. Sunday Magazine

1865. Fortnightly Review

1866. Contemporary Review

The dates of the commence

1877. Nineteenth Century

1880. Harper's Magazine

1883. National Review

English Illustrated Magazine

1889. New Review

1890. Review of Reviews

1891. Strand Magazine

Of these fifteen, eleven were in existence while the growth of literature was satisfactory both as to quantity and quality; and

although it may not be asserted that, because concurrent with, they were contributory to that growth, such an inference is possible, perhaps even probable; in any case, it affords strong evidence that they were not responsible for the decline which set in at a later period. The commencement of the English Illustrated Magazine and the National Review, in 1883, would have no appreciable effect on general literature. The Review of Reviews, in 1890, and the Strand Magazine, in 1891, were departures of more consequence; but the decadence set in five years before they were started. That their general tendency is to stimulate superficial, cursory, and scrappy reading can scarcely be questioned, and it is reasonable to fear that they have done something to swell the force of the current which appears to be undermining the growth of solid literature. Some other explanation of the origin of this decadence must, however, be sought.

The most remarkable phenomenon of literature, if the word may be applied to these lower grades, during the last fifteen years, has been the rise and extraordinary growth of weekly papers of a scrappy character and of very various degrees of merit or demerit. While some have endeavoured to supply useful and elevating reading matter, a considerable number of those most widely circulated have been fostered by appeals to the love of gambling and sensationalism inherent in human nature.

Taking good and bad together, some of the most prominent of these were commenced at the dates prefixed to their names:

Most of these publications have been pushed to circulations counted by hundreds of thousands, and concurrent with their growth has been the establishment of newspapers combining with the ordinary news the same scrappy and sensational elements; notably The People has attained a large circulation. Such papers as The Family Herald, depending entirely on fiction, and The Christian Herald and The Christian World, appealing to the religious sentiment, but combining the element of fiction with their more serious matter, seem to have largely extended their circulation. Of one of these it was said, a few years since, by a member of the editorial staff, that if the chapter of the novel was left out for a week or two the circulation went down by thousands.

Has the growth of this class of reading matter anything to do with the decadence of literature of a more solid and useful character? If it has, is the connection that of cause or of effect? It is curious,

at the least, that these periodicals commenced their great movement in 1881 and following years, and the decay of literature commenced in 1885; and concurrently the one has steadily increased while the other has steadily declined.

Happily no opportunity has arisen during the period under notice. to compare the effect of war on the output of literature; the effect of political or electoral movements could only be traced by an examination of the figures at greater length than is now possible. Two or three special movements indicated are, however, worthy of notice. There is reason to fear that the increase in fiction has been accompanied by a deteriorating movement within itself. New editions may be taken to indicate appreciation of works which have taken their place among the classics. Unfortunately, under the subdivision 'Fiction' there has been a considerable falling-away of new editions; for the five periods the percentage of new editions to the entire output of fiction has been :

Under the subdivision' Belles Lettres' there appears to be a satisfactory tendency in the direction of the classics; the percentage of new editions to the whole output has been :

giving place to the new.
History,' and Geography,' the averages are:

In educational works, during the earlier years of School Boards new editions of old works seemed to be in favour; now the old order is Taking the three subdivisions Educational,'

Unfortunately, it appears that the efforts made to spread technical education have been anything but successful, if the figures of the Science and Art subdivision are a fair test; they are: