such news it is quite certain that the operations in this territory are of minor impor

tance.

THE CENSORSHIP

The " fog of war" hangs heavily over all of Europe. We on this side of the ocean are not the only ones who suffer. I received a letter to-day from an English friend who lives about two hours from London. It is dated the 17th of August. "In to-day's paper is the first scrap of news that we in England have had for weeks about our troops. We knew from individuals that they were embarking, and to-day we are allowed to know that they have landed in France." Knowing my friend's interest in such matters, I had asked in a previous letter about the effect of the anti-war demonstration in Trafalgar Square. "I did not see anything at all in the papers," my friend writes, "about the anti-war demonstration." Even in England everything which the Government thinks the people had best not know is suppressed.

So we must not be surprised if at any time new facts come out which will completely change the face of the situation. But by piecing together the fragmentary despatches and trying to reconcile the conflicting ones we can reach a tentative summary of the first month of this western campaign.

A MONTH OF WAR

The first move of the German army was to overrun Luxemburg. Almost simultaneously they crossed the Belgian frontier and attacked Liège. Contrary to all expectations, the plucky little Belgian army resisted stubbornly.

If it had not been for this check it is probable that the German Army of the Right, coming down from Aix-la-Chapelle, would have struck the French border at Givet within two days, and, joining the Crown Prince's army in Luxemburg, which operates from the bases of Trèves and Metz, would have smashed into France between Verdun and Rheims.

It is nearly certain that the French expected the main attack here, and concentrated their forces in this territory between the Meuse and the Moselle.

The Germans, realizing that they had lost the advantage of a quick move, that the French had had time to prepare. gave up their "dashing attack" and deployed through Belgium, incidentally occupying Brussels by

the way. Holding the army in Luxemburg stationary as a pivot, they made a broad flanking movement with the object of turning the Allies' left and attacking Paris to the west of La Fère.

It was so daring a movement, it exhibited such amazing reliance on the commissary department and such disregard for the military maxims about lines of communication, that the French, in spite of their aerial scouts, did not take it seriously till it was well launched.

We have no definite information as to the number of men involved in this march through Belgium. Although it has probably been exaggerated, it must still have been immense. And the soldiers must have done it mostly on foot, leaving the railways free to bring up the supplies.

The Belgian army, although it fought stubbornly, was easily brushed aside. The first impact of the attack seems to have fallen on the English at Mons. Here again we can only guess at numbers. On paper the British expeditionary force is 125,000. But a recent issue of the "Broad Arrow," an English military review, tells of the "trial mobilization" of an army corps at home last spring. One division appeared at the rendezvous complete in numbers and equipment; the other division was twenty per cent wanting in men, lacked a number of officers, and its army train was defective to the point of uselessness. It is doubtful if the English had 80,000 men at the front.

However, according to the London reports, they acted with great heroism in the face of heavy odds and retreated in good order. The fact that this rear-guard fight all the way from Mons to La Fère was continuous shows that there was no rout. The German losses in such an action would probably be very heavy. According to the latest reports, the English are now in the strongest position they have yet occupied, they have received reinforcements from home which more than replace their losses, and they are now heavily supported by the French.

In the center, between the Meuse and the Moselle, where the French were probably in greatest force, they attempted several advances, but were repulsed. There has undoubtedly been much heavy fighting, but little movement from either side.

Almost as soon as the Germans invaded Belgium the French rushed into Alsace, capturing Thann, Altkirche, and Mülhausen-all

unfortified. This raid was backed up by a movement down the passes of the Vosges Mountains, which advanced to within a few miles of Strassburg. Here again we have no information as to the numbers engaged, and very few details about the operations. Both sides claimed unimportant victories. And at last the French had to retire, either before superior forces or, as their War Office explains, because they were needed in the north.

So at the end of the first month it appears that the French offensive has been everywhere repulsed. They have held their eastern frontier intact, but in the north the Allies have been driven back from the border to their second line of defense.

The Germans, with a renewed tradition of victory behind them, are facing a line of heavy fortifications which will be defended vigorously. If they can break through or turn them they will be one step nearer Paris.

THE STRATEGICAL HONORS

The French campaign in Alsace has been bitterly criticised by easy-chair generals. It was probably undertaken for political rather than military reasons. The fate of the Lost Provinces will be fought out in other fields. The poor inhabitants of Alsace, who welcomed the French, will probably have a hard time now that the Germans have come back. But as the evidence is not all in yet, it is well to restrain criticism. However, it certainly looks at this writing as if the French Staff had been badly outgeneraled. The Germans have turned up in force where they were not expected. The Allies had as many men, if not more, at their disposal, but they seem to have guessed wrong as to where they were needed.

THE MONTH TO COME

We will none of us probably be asked again to live through another month so exciting as September, 1914, promises to be. We are not sure in detail what has happened, so it is even harder than usual to prophesy. But things of the utmost importance to Europe and all this world will be decided in the next few weeks.

Theoretically, the Allies should be able to hold their present lines. Every day that they have retreated their numbers have been increased by reinforcements. Their "thin line" with every backward movement has contracted and solidified. They know where

The forts,

the attack is coming from now. which are part of their position, are very strong.

Theoretically, the Germans ought to find. every mile of advance harder. Their line of communication is already perilously long. A certain percentage of their artillery and equipment must have been smashed. Horses and men must be fatigued. Probably Germany is still able to put fresh men in the front. There are hundreds of thousands of welltrained men who have not yet been under fire. But the losses have been great, and will be greater as the Germans attack fortifications. They have lost the advantage of surprise. Their early successes were undoubtedly assisted by the fact that their generals had out-moved those of the Allies. But now they are probably outnumbered on the battle line.

But the Germans have already done the theoretically impossible in their amazing march through Belgium.

And the morale of armies is a matter of mob psychology and has little to do with theory. theory. And of this we know nothing. The stories of dejected German prisoners give little light. The fact that a correspondent of the London Times," after talking with some wounded English soldiers, fell into a funk and wrote to his paper that all was lost is interesting but not convincing.

The future depends more on this matter of psychology than anything else. The maneuvering is pretty well over-with the honors to the Germans. The generals have done their part, and now it is up to the rank and file. Which side has the more stamina?

Has the élan of the Germans been broken by appalling losses? They have already expended stupendous energy. Can they keep up the pace? No campaign is won till the opposing army is routed. And the Allies have not turned tail and run yet. Perhaps the German generals, in the hope that one more blow would crush the enemy, have driven their men to the breaking point. It would not be entirely surprising if the German advance would blow up suddenly like a soap-bubble. They simply must keep going. Have they the wind?

And what do the soldiers of the Allies think about this long-drawn-out retreat? It is always hard to keep one's nerve when things are going wrong. And the French have been trained for an offensive warfare. I can easily imagine them utterly downhearted,

feeling that their generals have blundered, that heroism is useless against overwhelming Perhaps to-night, as they sit about their camp-fires, they are telling the stories of their fathers of the débâcle of 1870-psychologically ripe for panic and rout.

If I could find the Magic Carpet to-night, I would not go eavesdropping to the palaces of kings, nor to the council rooms of ministers, nor even to the tents of the generals. I would whisk myself over to the trenches and listen to the stories Piou Piou is telling to Tommy Atkins, and find out whether the Germans are singing their songs true-or flatting. That, I think, would be the most important information we could have tonight.

For unless one side or the other is badly defeated utterly routed-I do not see that the impending engagement will get us very far.

Even if the Allies are forced to give up this line, so long as they can do it in good order, the Germans are almost as far from winning as ever. They cannot seriously invest Paris with three armies in the field

against them. In 1870 they had crushed MacMahon at Sedan, bottled up Bazaine in Metz, and driven Bourbaki into Switzerland, before they struck at Paris. With these armies defeated, France had no organized reserves to threaten communications. And then the Germans were not pressed for time. They were not worrying about their eastern frontier.

And if the fortunes of war suddenly change and the Germans are defeated—unless they have a panic-the Allies, after their repeated reverses, can hardly have the strength to follow up the victory.

wall of Germany. If its forts are carried, there is nearly two hundred miles to traverse before the River Oder is reached, and that is even more strongly fortified. The Russian army is not so well equipped nor is its commissary as efficient as the German. The Russian advance, even if unresisted, will be slow. I doubt if it can become formidable enough to influence the campaign in France for several weeks.

I hazard the guess that the troop trains reported from Belgium to be going east, carrying reinforcements for East Prussia, are in reality hospital trains carrying home the sick and wounded from the front.

It is inconceivable that the Germans should withdraw troops which might be used in the west. German imperialism is gambling its very existence on this war. 'The overrunning of a few hundred square miles of the eastern marches is a small matter. I believe Berlin would be sacrificed before the Kaiser would risk weakening his attack on France. The enemy in the west must be crushed before serious attention can be given to Russia.

On the other hand, let us assume for a minute that the German despatches are true, that the Russians have been seriously defeated at Allenstein. Unless England and France are smashed to the point where they cannot furnish money to the Czar, he can go on equipping soldiers and pouring them over the frontier almost indefinitely. Those who are reported to have been lost are a mere drop in the bucket. If the Allies can maintain themselves in the west, sooner or later the weight of Russian numbers must be a deciding factor.

THE AUSTRO-RUSSIAN CAMPAIGN

Early in the war the Austrians invaded Russian Poland, and despatches from Vienna and St. Petersburg both claimed victories in the neighborhood of Lublin.

Simultaneously the Southern Russian Army crossed the frontier into the Austrian province of Galicia. And here the forces of the Czar seem to have had tangible successes. The latest news as we go to press is an admission from Vienna that the Russians have taken Lemberg. This seems to confirm the roundabout rumors which have been coming from Rome and Bucharest of a great Austrian defeat.

The number of men involved in this campaign is probably as great as in northern

France. This is the point of least resistance for a Russian attack, and it seems that the Czar is exerting the greatest pressure here. And a decisive Russian victory in Galicia is likely to be the death-blow for the Hapsburg dynasty.

THE MONTH AT SEA

News of a naval engagement has at last reached us; but, judged by the standard of land operation in this stupendous war, it hardly deserves to be called a "battle."

The

Apparently a half-dozen German light cruisers, escorted by destroyers, attempted at dash from Heligoland with the intention of running the English blockade and harrying commerce. The attempt failed, and four or five of the German ships were sunk. English losses were light. No modern battleships of the dreadnought type were involved. While there has been no great naval fight, the fleets of the Allies have accomplished what they were intended for. They have kept the seas open for English and French and neutral ships. For a country like England, which is dependent on the sea for food supplies and for bringing up reinforcements, this is indeed an important service.

It is also a deadly blow to German economic life. The French and English steamship lines-except as they have been crippled by the requisition of their best ships for military purposes-are operating almost normal.

at

Many of the French and English factories can be kept open, while unemployment in Germany must have reached tragic proportions.

LOUVAIN

During this fourth week of the war the German army added luster to its traditions of victory. But in the Franco-Prussian War, which established the German Empire, and on which all German military traditions are based, the Germans observed the rules of the Kriegspiele. No amount of victory will remove the tarnish which the massacre at Louvain has brought to their arms.

Both France and Germany refused at the Hague Conference to subscribe to the prohibition against dropping bombs in fortified. cities, which was proposed by England, who had not at that time begun building flyingmachines. So, no matter how many women and children were blown to pieces, nor how

many diplomats were disturbed, I believe that the air-ship attacks on Antwerp and Paris were technically "correct."

But for the wholesale executions of noncombatants and the wanton burning of a large part of the defenseless town of Louvain there is not even a technical excuse. Even if we accept the German account, the affair was unpardonably barbarous.

No doubt the great mass of the German people are just as horrified as we at this act of vandalism. But if their official representatives continue such practices, it will be continually harder for any civilized being to maintain neutrality.

ENGLAND AND THE WAR

In a way, Great Britain is less closely involved in this war than the Continental countries. Only the very rich can afford to have their sons become army officers. And, as with us, only the poor enlist as privates. The big middle class and the more fortunate workers do not have relatives at the front. Universal conscription on the Continent means that almost every family has a son or father on the firing line.

But that the English are stirred by this war as never before is shown by the calling in of the native troops from India. The attitude of the Englishmen who have served in the colonies towards this move is well illustrated by Kipling's South African story "A White Man's War." Dark as things looked for the Empire at the beginning of the Boer War, the English decided not to risk letting the "natives get the habit of killing white men. After all, there is no great difference in appearance between Germans and English. If the Sikhs and Ghurkas are brought into this campaign, there is danger that they may not recognize this difference. If they get it into their heads that they are good enough to kill white men, they may some time take a shot at their English masters. The decision to bring them to Europe will be regarded by all "colonials," active or retired, as a counsel of desperation.

But the news will be received with greater regret by all those good people in England who have been supporting foreign missions. The lessons in applied Christianity which these heathen will get on the Continent will hardly help the cause of Christ-the Prince of Peace-in India.