Hand-Weaving Beautiful draperies, delightful rugs, table linen, and dress fabrics of individual charm can all be woven at home on a hand-loom. And it is not slow work-one may weave a whole dress with elaborate decorations in less time than it takes to embroider a simple collar and cuff set! Though it requires no long training nor special ability, weaving is creative work of the highest order. Moreover, there is profit as well as pleasure in the work if one chooses. By joining the Shuttle-Craft weavers, whose circle extends from Maine to Southern California and from Seattle to Miami, you too may have a share in the great modern revival of our beautiful old American art, and will be enabled to make things as lovely and as lasting as the treasured Colonial textiles. The Shuttle-Craft service supplies equipment, instructions, patterns, and weaving materials, and we also send out a monthly news-letter to subscribers. Send ten cents for our booklet and full information. MARY M. ATWATER THE SHUTTLE-CRAFT CO., Inc. 14Q Ash Street, Cambridge, Mass. of them deal with matters, domestic or The War Recol COMMANDING AN AMERICAN ARMY. A brief, and for the most part a tech- Essays and Criticism ALONG THE ROAD. By Aldous Huxley. The An oak on the U. S. Capitol grounds m Washington. Perfect healing of new bark over Davey cement filling Davey Tree Surgeons live and work in your vicinity Nearly 600 Davey Tree Surgeons are constantly at work saving the trees of more than 10,000 clients a year between Boston and Kansas City, and Canada to the Gulf. Some of them live near you and are quickly and easily available. A score of entertaining essays written during the interludes of tourist travel in Flanders and Italy. His topics range from a dissertation on the advantages of staying at home to a vivid description of the Palio, Siena's annual pageant, and appreciation of such antipodes in art as Breughel and the obscure Conxolus. One gathers that Mr. Huxley never makes journey on pleasure bent without packing in his grip a volume of the Britannica to save him from those hours of ennui which oppress the British and American tourist when surfeited by cathedrals and galleries or kept indoors by the weather. "With me traveling is frankly a vice," he confesses, and with equal candor prefers his 10 H.P. Citroen for locomotion THE DAVEY TREE EXPERT CO., INC. to shank's mare or the railway. The German Wander-Birds who do Italy on foot he admires profoundly, but he does not envy them. Mr. Huxley's humor is here of a playful nature. Wit flavors his wisdom, but a gentler wit than one might expect from the author of "Crome Yellow." There is nothing sensational in the pages of this collection, but as a book for the bored tourist it may be found to contain virtues not extractable from a volume of the Britannica. DIALOGUES IN LIMBO. By George Santayana. The poet-scholar plays too obscure a 578 City Bank Building Kent, Ohio Branch offices with telephone connections as follows: New York, Albany, Boston, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, Cincinnati, Louisville, Indianapolis, Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City, Minneapolis, Montreal. Attach this coupon to your letterhead and mail today In writing to the above advertisers, please mention The Outlook Cocoa a Man's Drink There's Health in Every Drop! not one hundred per cent American according to Ku Klux standards. After many years' service at Harvard, he chose to make his home in Paris; since which time (a dozen years ago) "Who's Who in America" has placed him definitely on the shelf. We are always hearing of English novelists who find most of their audience in America; George Santayana is chiefly valued in France and England. These "Dialogues in Limbo" were first printed, and warmly received, in England. They are in the classic tradition of the "Imaginary Conversations" and "Dialogues of the Dead." In these several discourses we listen to the shades of Democritus, Alcibiades, Aristippus the Cyrenaic, Dionysius the Tyrant, Socrates, and Avicenna; and to the spirit of a certain Stranger still living on earth, who is obviously the shade of Santayana himself. Here we may find urbane and philosophical discussion of diverse matters, from madness to self-government, BAKER'S and from the vivisection of a mind to the "secret of Aristotle." Our enjoyment of the book hangs upon our relish for the Santayana personality, its lambent wit, its fruitful irony. It is in our taste for that aura or perfume of which we hear in the opening dialogue, "The Scent of Philosophies:" "So a soul vibrating in harmony with the things that nourish and solicit her has an aura which, without spreading any sharp odor, refreshes every creature that inhales it, causing the nostrils and the breast to expand joyfully, as if drinking in the sea-breeze or the breath of the morning." Music ON THE TRAIL OF NEGRO FOLK-SONGS. By Dorothy Scarborough. The Harvard University Press, Cambridge. $3.50. In "On The Trail of Negro FolkSongs," Dorothy Scarborough, assisted by Ola Lee Gulledge, offers a very interesting study of a subject well worthy of serious consideration. "Folk-Songs". says the author, "are shy, elusive things. If you wish to capture them, you have to steal up behind them, unbeknownst, and sprinkle salt on their tails." Despite this shyness, which is characteristic of other folk-songs besides those of the Negro, Miss Scarborough has captured many of the lyrics of slavery days songs not composed, but inherited and handed. down by vocal tradition for many generations. Miss Scarborough divides her subject into eight classifications; the most interesting and novel is that chapter devoted to "The Blues," "that peculiar, barbaric sort of melody, with its irregular rhythm, its lagging briskness, its mournful liveliness of tone," which has comparatively recently made its appearance north of Mason and Dixon's Line. For the introduction here of form of folk-song W. C. Handy is sponsible, a music publisher in N York, the descendant of slaves " stole their education and learned figure in the ashes." According to authority, this form of music represe the Negro's capacity for quick recov from disaster to irresponsible gaye Miss Scarborough prints a great many these songs, in some cases with the mu cal notes as well as the words, and absence of any literary skill shows t none of them is the work of the prof sional song-writer. The volume is that deserves to be highly prized those interested in either the Negro ra or the native music of this country. Miscellaneous AMERICANA. By Milton Waldman. Henry H & Co., New York. $5. Mr. Waldman ranges from the wr ten records of Columbus and the oth early discoverers, through the basic doc ments of the histories of New Englan New York, Pennsylvania, and Virgini and down to the story of the conspic ous rare books of Irving, Bryant, Ha thorne, Poe, Lowell, Whittier, and son of the minor men of the nineteenth ce tury. Setting the stage for his introdu tion of the writings of the first venturer he sweepingly pictures the restless, bril iant fifteenth century, when it was nece sary for Europe to find an outlet for h energy lest she blow herself to piece "She had accumulated knowledge an wealth unprecedented for a thousan years, found to her hand a trained bod of mariners and geographers of a qualit unknown even in antiquity. . . . Every thing was ready for the creation of a ne history-even an extraordinary body historians to write it. And, what is mon an instrument had been devised for years earlier for the recording of this hi tory as the history of no previous epo was or could have been recorded." other words, it was the invention of th art of printing about 1450 that enabl Columbus, returning from the discove of America, to found a history instead inaugurating a legend. In writing to the above advertisers, please mention The Outlook age as Poe, who had then gone to Boston to join the army. Mr. Waldman's theory is that Poe had promised to bear the cost of publication, probably counting upon financial aid from his adopted father, Mr. Allan; that Thomas, before binding the sheets, demanded his money, and when it was not forthcoming, sold the sheets as old paper. The four extant copies, according to the theory, were among the few which were sent to the reviewers, or turned over to Poe to use in soliciting sales. Notes on New Books THROUGH SCIENCE TO GOD. row. The Bobbs-Merrill apolis. $2.50. By Floyd L. DarCompany, Indian This book endeavors to show that belief in facts of modern science does not interfere with religious faith. HAND-READING TODAY. By Ethel Watts Mumford. The Frederick A. Stokes Company, New York. $1.50. All about palmistry-a "science" almost as amusing and fully as harmless as making fudge, with the same penalty if you take too much of it. IN OUR TIME. By Ernest Hemingway. Boni & Liveright, New York. Short stories. $2. WANDERINGS AND EXCURSIONS. By J. Ram say MacDonald. The Bobbs-Merrill Company, Indianapolis. $3. Essays by the former Prime Minister of Great Britain, partly about his travels and partly about political events and personalities. THE COMING FAITH. By R. F. Foster. Dodd, Mead & Co., New York. $2. The famous authority on bridge writes a serious book on religion and life. THE MASTER AND HIS FRIENDS. By H. A. Wilson. Longmans, Green & Co., New York. $1.75. A story of the life of Christ written from the point of view of two children who lived in his time and knew him. TWENTY MILES OUT. Indiscretions of a Commuter's Wife. By Herself. Little, Brown & Co., Boston. $1.25. A brief and pleasant book about life in the country. THE HOUSE OF ISRAEL OR THE ANGLOSAXON. By Samuel Albert Brown. The Boyer Printing and Advertising Company, Portland, Oregon. To prove that the Anglo-Saxon or Nordic people are the direct descendants of the lost ten tribes of Israel. THE RELATION OF GOVERNMENT TO INDUSTRY. By M. L. Requa. The Macmillan Company, New York. $2. THE PSYCHOLOGY OF HUMAN SOCIETY. By Charles A. Ellwood. D. Appleton & Co., New York. $3. An introduction to sociological theory by the Professor of Sociology in the University of Missouri. $4 JOSEPHINE, NAPOLEON'S EMPRESS. By C. S. Forester. Dodd, Mead & Co., New York. Napoleon slew a million men; he divorced one woman. Women easily forgive him for the dead men, but never for the divorced woman. RAHWEDIA. By C. Harold Smith. D. Appleton & Co., New York. $2.50. "A true romance of the South Seas." SEX AT CHOICE. By Mrs. Monteith Erskine. G. P. Putnam's Sons, New York. $2. This book, so says the jacket, tells women how to regulate the sex of their children. Perhaps it does. Mr. Dooley once knew a man who wrote such a book, and left six unmarried daughters. LEWIS MILLER. By Ellwood Hendrick. G. P. Putnam's Sons, New York. The life of a designer and inventor of harvesting machinery who was also one of the founders of Chautauqua. MODERN MISSIONS IN MEXICO. By W. Reginald Wheeler, Dwight H. Day, and James B. Rodgers. The Westminster Press, Philadelphia. Protestant missions in Columbia and Venezuela. ALL LL the gorgeous revelry of France and old Madrid, joyous, carefree and colorfula tale from the Arabian Nights which comes to life each year in America's most fascinating city. See it without fail this year from February 11th to 16th, on your way to California via the SUNSET LIMITED A splendid, de luxe daily train New Orleans to Los Angeles, San Diego, and San Fran cisco. Stopovers at New Orleans allowed on all tickets via Sunset Route. Club Car, Observation Car and latest type Dining and Sleeping Cars. Convenient service for the 120-mile motor side trip over the famous Apache Trail and for the marvelous Carriso Gorge. For information and literature address In writing to the above advertisers, please mention The Outlook SECURITY RECORD HALSEY STUART & CO This Handy saves unnecessary trips It is made in loose-leaf form so that pages may be added as required-the pocket size is handy and compact. Included is a bond interest Income Tax Data when you use the conven- Financial Department Conducted by WILLIAM LEAVITT STODDARD The Financial Department is prepared to furnish information regarding standard investment securities, but cannot undertake to advise the purchase of any specific security. It will give to inquirers facts of record or information resulting from expert investigation, and a nominal charge of one dollar per inquiry will be made for this special service. The Financial Editor regrets that he cannot undertake the discussion of more than five issues of stocks or bonds in reply to any one inquirer. All letters should be addressed to THE OUTLOOK FINANCIAL DEPARTMENT, 120 East 16th Street, New York, N. Y. A Interest Rates and Speculation FEW weeks ago a highly speculative spirit in the stock markets of the country was suddenly checked and stocks began to tumble back. What had happened was that the Boston Federal Reserve Bank had raised the rediscount rate. A tremor shot through the brokerage houses and thousands of customers sold out. Within a fortnight or so stocks had begun to climb again, and at this writing it looks as if former prices were to be equaled, if not exceeded. All this is prefatory to the remark that there is a current and persistent belief that money rates have a most important effect on the prices of stocks and on stock speculation. This belief we have echoed in these pages from time to time, and for this reason we hasten to call attention to a recent study' which, on the basis of an examination of over fifty years' records, shows that stock speculation is not controlled by money rates. "We have examined," say the authors, "both the statistical evidence and the theoretical foundations of the doctrine that stock prices are controlled by short-time interest rates and call-loan rates, and have found no support for the doctrine. We do not contend that there is no relationship between these markets, but we feel certain that interest rates are only one of the many factors which determine the course of prices in the stock market." This study is too long and too intricate, although simply put throughout, to analyze critically here. We shall therefore merely summarize some of its more important points. The reader should see the book itself. The first striking point is that when, for years before the establishment of the Federal Reserve System, there was a series of very definite seasons in call-money rates, the record of the New York Stock Exchange reveals no corresponding seasonal fluctuations in stock exchange prices. The call-money seasons, roughly, were as follows: Low rates from the firs of the year to the middle of February: rising rates till April or May: weakening rates to a "genuine depression" in June and July; rates rising to a peak in Octo ber during the crop-moving season, and a high level till about January. The theory which this book attack assumes that variations in call-money rates cause variations in stock specula tion. "The decline of the rate of inter est is said to be the signal for increase activity on the part of speculators. Thes speculators, so we are told, hasten to take advantage of the cheap money by borrowing funds with which to purchas stocks." And leading economists ar quoted to prove that such actually is th theory. Facts have a pleasant or is it a unpleasant?-way of knocking theorie which are not firmly based into cocke hats. Records were examined for forty-tw years to see if any relationship could b found between month-to-month change in call-loan rates and stock prices. the theory were sound, such a relation ship should appear, perhaps not in ever case, but at least in a majority of case The results were these: In thirty-eigh years the call-loan rate declined from December to January. In fourteen these years stock prices went up, fifteen they went down, and in nine yea they showed no change. The theory mands that a fall in call money shou shoot prices up. They didn't inevitab go up. Again, in thirty-three years cal loan rates declined in February, b stocks, instead of going up in thirty-th years, went up in only sixteen year These results are similar to those closed for all the months of the ye The authors say: "All these tests show a pronouns seasonal movement in call-loan rat with the seasons of high and low ra the same in all periods. On the oth hand, no test made for any period shem a seasonal movement of interest rates stock prices. We conclude, therefo In writing to the above advertiser, please mention The Outlook hat seasonal movements in interest rates o not cause seasonal movements in tock prices." Similarly, a study of call-loan rates nd stock prices over long periods or ycles failed to show the clear and defiite relation which the commonly acepted theory demands. For instance, in the depressed money market from 1873 it took four years bepre stock prices began a major advance. nother periods of cheap money, stocks ere also cheap; in some they were high. n all, taken as a continuous whole, no elationship was found. "Of the fifteen major recoveries of ock prices between 1872 and 1922, nly eight were immediately preceded by eriods of low call-loan rates. The ngths of these periods varied from two onths to twenty months. Two recovies began a short time before call rates ecame low. One began in a month of gh rates following close after periods of w rates. Four were neither immeately preceded nor immediately folwed by periods of low rates. In addion, it should be noted that five periods low rates for call loans began and ded without any improvement in stock ices. Clearly low rates are not necesry for an advance in stock prices; nor e they always followed by an adnce." The classic reason given for the supsed relation between cheap money and ar stocks is this: Cheap money means t people can borrow at little cost, ying with borrowed money dividending stocks and making at least the Ference between, say, 2 per cent and per cent. Thousands of people unbtedly "get into the market" for this son, and thousands stay out when mey rates are so high as to make the gin too small for apparent profit. This idea is carefully examined by the hors, with disastrous results: uppose, they say, a trader buys 100 res of stock for $100 each when call ney is 2 per cent. Suppose he holds se stocks two months. Suppose, ly, that the market does not move, so his only profit is the difference been the call-money rate and the divid rate. How much does he get? The answer is not the difference been 2 and 6 per cent on $10,000 for months. If it was, it could be found subtracting $33.34 (call-money cost) $100 (two months' dividends), or 66. There are expenses connected buying and selling stocks which the teur often overlooks. He must pay oker's commission when he buys and her when he sells. In this case he pay a total commission of $30. He HE F. H. Smith Company, founded in January 1873, has now completed 53 years of continuous service in the field of first mortgage investments without loss to any investor. This means that throughout more than half a century the men and women who have put their money into the first mortgage investments sold by this house have known but one result -perfect safety. promptly on the date due; 53 years of freedom from worry, delay or loss to any investor. Smith Bonds, therefore, are safe bonds. They are the ideal investment for any man or woman whose first consideration is safety. NOW 7% Behind Smith Bonds there is now a record of no loss to any investor in 53 years. Smith Bonds are owned by investors in every state in the United States and in 30 countries and territories abroad. This worldwide confidence in Smith Bonds is the result of 53 years of proven safety-53 years in which every cent of principal or interest has been paid For your January funds, Smith Bonds give you this proven safety of 53 years. with the liberal interest rate of 7%. You may invest any amount in $1,000, $500 or $100 denominations, and you have a choice of maturities from two years to ten years. Our new booklet, "Fifty-three Years of Proven Safety," and the 1926 edition of our Investment Savings Plan booklet, "How to Build an Independent Income," will be mailed to you upon receipt of your name and address on the form below. In writing to the above advertiser, please mention The Outlook 6-K |