we are quite sure that in the not distant future it will be of tremendous benefit; that through the Canal and along the waterway that leads from the heart of the American continent there will move a tide of commerce greater than America has ever witnessed along one route."

In estimating the future increase in coast-tocoast traffic, the probable additional tonnage from the Gulf ports must be considered, irrespective of the river-borne cargoes from the upper Mississippi. At present there are not enough steamers to carry the available freight from the Gulf to the Canal, as is shown by the following report, sent to the writer April 2 by the New Orleans office of the United States Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce : "The demands for shipping space out of New Orleans to the Pacific coast have been incessant, but so far it has been impossible to obtain vessels. According to the present navigation laws, trade between Eastern ports and California is limited to American-built vessels under the American flag. sels are now at a premium for European trade. . . . The United Fruit Company operates a service from New Orleans to the Canal, and has been offered large quantities of freight for San Francisco, to be transshipped at Panama. This trade they have been absolutely unable to accommodate, as . their vessels, while under the American flag, are foreign-built. . . . As soon as the war is over it is practically certain that a large number of the vessels which have been shifted from the coastwise trade to European traffic will be placed in the Gulf-to-California service."

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THE PACIFIC COAST AND EUROPE

In addition to the coastwise trade, in which, even under existing conditions, Panama has actually surpassed expectations, there is another route, closely related to that between the American seacoasts, in which the Canal has also been highly successful. The traffic between the Pacific seaboard of North America and Europe has been noticeably heavy. In the statistics of this trade, however, the shipping of our own Western States and of western Canada is grouped together, since steamers usually take on and discharge freight on the same trip at a number of ports from San Diego, California, to Vancouver, British Columbia. It was estimated that this Pacific coast - European trade would furnish a little over ten per cent of the ship

ping through the Canal; as a matter of fact, it has made up about fifteen per cent of the total cargo passing through Panama these first twelve months. The actual tonnage has fallen somewhat short of the official estimates, but this has been due chiefly to the very small amount of freight from Europe, a condition undoubtedly caused by the war.

Of the exports from the Pacific coast, grain, lumber, and canned goods have formed the bulk of the cargoes. During the first halfyear of the Canal, a period when the Western harvests were being marketed, grain furnished the largest tonnage of any single commodity shipped through the Canal on any route, and practically all of it went from the west coast of North America direct to Europe. Altogether 11,914,000 bushels of barley and wheat were sent to Great Britain and other European countries up to February 15, and since then the cargoes have continued to be heavy. An official report from the Pacific Northwest, dated February 25, says, "Vast shipments of California barley are still moving from this coast to the United Kingdom." In fact, the export of grain and flour, which have been in such great demand in Europe, seemed to be limited only by the number of ships to be secured. The United States Vice-Consul at Victoria, British Columbia, in describing the trade situation of the entire Pacific coast, wrote, January 29, "All available tonnage is being kept constantly in service, and many thousands of tons of additional shipping could be used very profitably." Now that the new harvest is ready for shipment, the shortage of steamers is even greater than before. During the first week in August higher charter rates were charged for ships to carry wheat from the Pacific Northwest to Europe than have ever before been known in the grain trade.

Lumber has been in much the same situation as grain; there have not been enough ships to carry the cargoes waiting transportation. The Blue Funnel Line, which in February started a regular service between Liverpool and the Pacific Northwest, announced that all of its vessels were booked to capacity up to May, 1915, and that its first five ships would carry approximately 10,000,000 feet of Pacific lumber. During the past few weeks unprecedentedly high prices have been paid for ships to carry lumber to England. In addition to the grain and lumber, canned goods, especially fruit and fish, have formed a large item in this Pacific'

trade to Europe. It is also a happy augury for the future that earlier in the Canal year 15,600 boxes of refrigerated apples were shipped from Washington and Oregon to London. It should be added that, of all the Canal freight from the Pacific to Europe, the larger part thus far has come from the ports of the United States rather than from those of Canada.

None of the ships on this trade route fly the United States flag. Of the six lines which have a more or less regular service, three are British, one Danish, one Swedish, and one Norwegian. But since a monthly sailing is the most frequent maintained by any of them, a large proportion of the traffic to Europe is carried by tramp steamers, most of which have British registry.

NEW YORK AS A DISTRIBUTING CENTER

It was anticipated by the commercial interests of New York that a considerable proportion of this trade between Europe and the ports of the Pacific would come to their city for transshipment. In fact, it was predicted by some that one of the most important results of the Canal would be to make New York a great distributing center for Panama commerce. This hope has been disappointed. Strictly domestic freight, to be sure, has come to New York, to be sent on by steamer through the Canal, from unexpectedly long distances inland; but this is not the case with foreign shipments. Nine of the leading steamship companies which operate lines from New York through the Canal, in answer to an inquiry which the writer sent out the last of March, practically agree that Panama is having very little, if any, effect in bringing more transfer freight to New York. garding cargoes to and from Australia and the Orient, one of the foremost shipping companies, Funch, Edye & Co., writes: "So far as we know, not one single package of freight has reached our Australian or Far Eastern services from Europe for transshipment at New York in consequence of the opening of the Panama Canal, nor do we think it is likely that such traffic would be induced by the opening of the Canal either in our direction or elsewhere."

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From the west coast of South America, it is true, some goods are now being sent to Europe via New York. This, however, is not due to the Canal, but to the temporary discontinuance, on account of the war, of many of the regular lines from Colon to Europe. Wessel,

Duval & Co., owners of the West Coast Line, say: "The result of the use of the Panama Canal has only been demonstrated in times that are abnormal, so it remains to be seen whether conditions will be materially different when the situation becomes normal again. To the extent of our present experience, we are unable to observe any tendency to make New York a distributing center for traffic between Europe and the south Pacific ports. We doubt if this will be the case."

There are some few shipments of freight for the Pacific seaboard even now coming to New York, to be forwarded by the American coastwise lines, and it is possible that the amount may increase slightly after the war. W. R. Grace & Co. report that they are receiving certain products from Brazil which they send on to California by their Atlantic and Pacific steamers; but the total of these shipments is small. The least unfavorable statement of all comes from the AmericanHawaiian Line, which writes regarding the freight carried by its coast-to-coast service: "When conditions again become normal, it is likely that the effect of the Canal will be to make New York more of a port of transfer than formerly, but the tonnage resulting will probably not run into very large figures and the amount of money left in the port of New York by the goods transshipped will be small."

Western Canada is benefiting from the Canal in much the same way as our own Pacific coast. One of the great grain-fields of the world, it has every promise of marvelous development except cheap and direct transportation to its markets on the Atlantic. This lack is now supplied by Panama. From recent estimates it is believed that the present normal grain yield of the parts of western and central Canada whose natural outlet is through the Canal 180,000,000 bushels, and that this will increase rapidly within the next few years. The cost of shipping this grain to Liverpool is about 24 cents a bushel via the Great Lakes, and, when these are closed to navigation during the five months of winter, it costs 36 cents a bushel by the rail route to St. John, New Brunswick, and thence by Atlantic steamer. A large proportion of the Canadian grain has been forced to pay the higher winter rates, owing to the lateness of the harvests and to the inadequate railway con

nections to the Lakes. Panama is now taking this grain at all times of the year at much lower charges than the cheap Great Lakes route. What the Canal means to western Canada may be judged from one of the signs displayed in the Canadian Building in the Panama-Pacific Exposition at San Francisco, which reads: "All the Canadian railroads are making ready for the enormous increase in Canadian grain export by the Pacific route which will be brought about by the opening of the Panama Canal. It is estimated that in twelve years from now over 300,000,000 bushels of Canadian grain will be shipped yearly by this route at a cost of five cents a bushel less than by the shortest route to European ports."

The export of lumber from western Canada is nearly as important as that of grain, for British Columbia has some of the most extensive and valuable forests in the world. At the present rate of cutting, not counting the annual growth, it will take two hundred and fifty years to exhaust merely the mature. timber now standing. This heavy and bulky freight has been hampered by high railway charges, but the Canal now brings it to the Atlantic coast ports at about one-half the former transportation costs. The past year the Canadian Government ordered 24,000,000 feet of lumber from British Columbia for harbor improvement work in Toronto. This order, which is the largest ever placed in western Canada, is now being shipped through the Canal. One of the steamship offices in Vancouver stated in February that contracts had already been made for shipment via Panama of all the lumber which their line could handle for some months to come. Only a few weeks ago the French Government asked the British Columbia millmen to bid on an order for an immense quantity of lumber which is to be used in constructing thousands of two-room houses in northern France for those whose homes were destroyed by the war. If the contract is secured, this immense tonnage will also go through the Canal.

This heavy export from western Canada would be very much greater if there were only sufficient shipping to carry it all. The tying up of the German vessels and the commandeering of so many British steamers by the British Admiralty have caused a serious shortage, which is made still worse by the small amount of return freight now available from Europe.

Government officials and railways are fully awake to the value of the Canal to western

Canada. The Dominion Parliament, in anticipation of the extra traffic through the. Canal, has passed large appropriations for docks, dredging, and other harbor improvements at Vancover and Victoria, and is now building an immense grain elevator at Vancouver, which it expects to have ready for the crop movement this fall. This will have a storage capacity of 1,250,000 bushels and will be able to discharge grain into the Panama steamers at a rate of 60,000 bushels an hour. A remarkable railway development has also been taking place in western Canada. During the past few months two new transcontinental roads have completed their extensions to their Pacific ports-the Canadian Northern to Vancouver, and the Grand Trunk to Prince Rupert; while the older road, the Canadian Pacific, has been spending many millions in double-tracking part of its line in British Columbia. These three lines will bring to their new and extensive Pacific terminals, which they are now constructing, added quantities of grain and lumber for the Panama route. The late President Hays, of the Grand Trunk, stated that his road alone was planning to ship 100,000,000 bushels of grain each year through the Canal.

By stimulating the foreign trade of this vast new land, aiding its development, and adding to its prosperity, Panama will, in turn, benefit our own country, which sells to Canada twice as much in value as do all other nations combined.

GENERAL RESULTS

The results of the Panama Canal upon the trade of North America are most gratifying to the United States. The coast-to-coast commerce and the exports from the western seaboard, in which Canada shares, are most satisfactory; while the only falling off from the estimated Canal tonnage is in the shipments from Europe to our Pacific States and to British Columbia. These facts suggest the real explanation of the relatively small amount of cargo now passing through the Canal. The slump in expected traffic is due, not to the trade of the United States, which is reasonably heavy, especially in exports, on all of the Panama routes, but to the tremendous falling off in European tonnage. The responsibility of Europe will be made more evident in the following article, which will describe the effect. of the Canal upon the trade of South America and the Orient.

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HE present European war and the opening of the Panama Canal have caused many American manufacturers to seek an export market for their goods. Especially they have looked to South America, believing that European competition would now be less, and also that the banking and shipping facilities are going to be better than ever before. Compared with England and Germany, America is young and ignorant in the science of securing and holding foreign customers-knowledge to be acquired only by slow and expensive experience and of this, which is really the science of foreign trade, much can be written and fail adequately to cover it; but one of the fundamental details upon which a foreign commerce is built can be outlined in a short article.

Most European manufacturers know how to pack their products for export, whereas the average American does not; and he knows little of the transshipments of his boxes and crates after they are forwarded from his local freight station. There is a great deal of ignorance as to the actual means by which freight is taken from the railway cars at seaboard and transferred to the holds of outgoing steamers, but there is a still greater lack of knowledge of how goods are discharged from the vessels in the foreign ports, and it is in this discharge that much rough handling of freight takes place, and to meet this strong packing is required. Of course discharge conditions vary in the different foreign countries of the world; in some ports excellent docks, cargo cranes, and warehouses are provided, whereas on other coasts there will be very few facilities and the cargo will have to go over the ship's side into a lighter by the vessel's own tackle. These last conditions are those which are very severe, and if a shipper's goods are packed well enough to meet them he can feel reasonably sure that his shipments will arrive in good condition, no matter to what part of the world they may go. The west coast of South America, especially Peru and Chile, affords a good example of severe discharge conditions.

The coast of Peru is a barren shore of rugged, brownish-yellow cliffs, with a lower fringe of white breakers from the Pacific and a background of the Andes, miles away. The northern part of the Chilean coast is similar, except that the cliffs are much higher-1,500 to 2,000 feet-and more reddish brown in color, but with the same barrenness and lack of vegetation. Of harbors there are none until one reaches Coquimbo, where the coast begins to have indentations with some grass and trees, while south of Valparaiso there are good harbors. But, on the whole, the west coast is open and unprotected, and most of the "ports" are not ports at all, but open roadsteads that receive the full strength of the waves of the Pacific.

There are several regular lines of steamers that ply up and down the coast from Panama south, carrying a miscellaneous collection of passengers, including German and English commercial travelers, a few Americans of the same classification selling for the most part shoes or drugs, men going from the States to the mines in Peru, Bolivia, or Chile, young fellows coming out from England to work in the English commercial houses scattered up and down the coast, and many Peruvians or Chileans who are making short trips along the coast from one port to the next. Of freight, the steamers discharge a great variety: medicines from St. Louis, cotton goods from Manchester, electrical machinery from Schenectady, oil, lard, rails-in fact, practically all articles used in modern life, as Peru, Bolivia, and Chile manufacture very little. They take on board sugar in Peru, and sometimes hides; in Chile perhaps nitrate of soda or minerals. The ships average one or sometimes two ports in each day, and betweentimes leisurely steam along the coast, a few miles off shore, through calm and peaceful seas. In port there is never any time wasted because of the many ports of call, and the cargo is handled with as much rapidity as possible. Consequently, as soon as a steamer is seen approaching one of the coast towns, the agent on shore sends out the

cargo lanchas, which, together with a fleet of native boatmen or fleteros, await the sound of the clattering of the numberless fathoms of rusty links of chain as the ship comes to anchor a quarter to half a mile off shore. After the ship has been "received" by the Captain of the Port, the fleteros swarm on board in search of passengers to be rowed ashore, and the lanchas are fastened alongside with two-inch manila hawsers which keep them at a distance from the ship.

The lanchas themselves are heavily constructed, open wooden boats from twenty-five to forty feet long, usually brought alongside by the strong arms and straining backs of the six or seven native lancheros, who, in their queer hats and color-striped jerseys, often resemble the pirates of the old prints.

The second officer opens the hatches and the checkers and freight-handlers drop down the narrow iron ladder into the dark depths of the hold. At the open hatch stands the mate bossing the discharge, one foot on an angle-iron at the side of the ship and a leg stretched across a corner of the black chasm of the hatchway; a position enabling him to see the men straining in the semidarkness of the 'tween-decks or to signal across the open hatch to the man at the steam winch-the winchero-or to curse in Spanish at the lancheros below, balancing

with outspread bare legs and looking up from the lancha rising and falling with the Pacific rollers. The winchero releases the brakes on the drum of his hoist and sends a line of rope snaking into the hold, where it is fastened to the first packing-case.

"Listo ?" (ready?) calls the mate who is directing operations, and from the hold below floats up, "Arriba a" (up).

The mate signals the winchero with an upward flicker of his. outstretched arm; the hoisting rope tightens; a case below hits the iron sides of the ship with a crash, shoots into view, and swings over the side, dangling at the end of the line. The mate watches the roll of the ship, the rise and fall of the lancha, and the swinging and twisting of the case at the end of a thirty-foot line. When there seems to be a fair chance of the case landing in the lancha and not in the ocean, he lowers his semaphoric right arm a hair, the winchero releases the brakes, and the case drops into the lancha.

If all conditions are favorable, the case strikes with more or less violence, depending on the skill and judgment of the mate. If, however, the lancha happens to be rising rapidly on a swell while the ship is rolling down, the resulting crash requires strong boxing to resist it. Or if the lancha is sliding into the hollow of a wave, and the