rantie, nulle solidairte politique, ne rattachent les destinées de l'Empire Ottoman aux stipulations réparatrices de 1814 et de 1815." Russia will never allow that the concerns and interests of Turkey can be discussed and decided on by European powers. Turkey is always "the East," in the eyes of the Court of St Petersburgh; and the Emperors Alexander and Nicolas have within the last twenty years, on several occasions, declared that, geographically as well as politically, Russia was the protectress of the Porte. Russia insists that the treaty of Unkiar Skelessi was a natural and necessary Oriental arrangement. "Settle the affairs of Spain as you will," the present Czar is reported to have said to an ambassador of France, " but leave the affairs of the East to the East itself." This policy, if acquiesced in, would tend to destroy the commercial relations of Great Britain and France, and would reduce those powers to the mere secondary parts of watching the movements of their territorial neighbours.

The treaty of Unkiar Skelessi destroyed the independence of Turkey, under the pretext of saving the integrity of its territory; and the possession of the Bosphorus, with all its attendant advantages, has been one of the consequences of that treaty. The Governments which acquiesced in the treaty of Unkiar Skelessi, or which, if they did not acquiesce in, did not oppose, its conditions by an armed resistance, have been, for six years, seeking to modify or to mitigate its provisions. This has been the labour of the diplomatists of France, Great Britain, and Austria-but especially of Great Britain. Has it been successful? No. The treaty subsists. The treaties of commerce concluded between the Porte and the Governments of St James's and the Tuileries, have in no respect changed the political relations of Constantinople and St Petersburgh; and the Czar is as much as ever the "protector of the Sultan" and the master of the Bosphorus. These are hard truths to be told and sad verities to be recorded; but truth cannot gain from concealment. The commercial treaty of Lord Ponsonby was not without its merits; but it has not produced the results which the Sultan anticipated. He believed that the Pacha would not ac

cept its provisions, or that, accepting them, they would ruin his revenue. The consequences have been different. The Pacha would not quarrel with England by refusing to accept the treaty, nor with his subjects, by fulfilling its conditions. As far as Egypt is concerned, the treaty of commerce is a dead letter.

The Czar, during the last year or two, has acted with even more than ordinary prudence in the affairs of the East. Perceiving that the attention of Great Britain and France was not wholly occupied with the affairs of Western Europe, the Emperor of Russia has contented himself with preparing fleets, organizing armies, refusing to make any concessions to either of the powers in question, or to the Porte as to the treaty of Unkiar Skelessi; and has not thrown any very important difficulties in the way of the negotiations of those powers with the Sultan for commercial treaties, because he has felt that his relations with the Porte were of a very different cha

racter.

The conduct of Austria, during the last six years, has been embarassed and contradictory. This is easily understood. Austria has no sympathy with France either as to French policy or French political institutions, or as to the affairs of Belgium, Holland, Spain, or Italy; but Austria owes some obligations to Louis-Philippe for his conduct with reference to Switzerland, and for the expulsion of demagogues and propagandists from those cantons - and Austria has an interest in maintaining the status quo in Turkey. Austria thinks with Russia on all northern and on all western questions ; but on the question of the East she thinks with France; not that their interests are similar-not that their ultimate views have the least resemblance; but for the moment Austria would prefer a total inaction on the part of the more immediate combatants, Mahmoud and Mehemet Ali; and is one of the loudest in demanding the status quo. The recent commercial treaty between Great Britain and Austria, is said to have modified the views of the court of Vienna as to Eastern affairs, and that she is more disposed than ever to think and to act with England. We are not disposed to place much confidence in this report. Austria possesses a wise and prudent government, which acts on fixed and conservative principles, and the events of recent years have not been of a character, either in England or Ireland, to afford her satisfaction or encouragement. But as a prudent and wise government, Austria has felt that the moment had not arrived for making any hostile demonstration on the subject of the Russian influence at Constantinople; and although she would have no objection to find Bosnia and Albania in her possession, yet she would not purchase that possession at the price of the capture by Russia of the capital of the Ottoman empire. To her, indeed, the neutrality of the Bosphorus is of the last importance, as the Bosphorus is the issue of the Danube; and on the liberty of that mighty stream depends the future commercial and political prosperity of Austria. But the Court of Vienna deliberates before it acts, and reflects long and deeply before it negotiates. It is fully convinced what are its interests, and it will steadily maintain them. Still its maritime interests in the Eastern question are, for the time, of less importance than the gradual and general tranquillizing of its Polish, and its Italian and Tyrolean states; and, unless in the event of a general war, Austria will not take any very important part in the Eastern question. The future government of France, the settlement of the Hanoverian question, the gradual calming down of the Germanic states, the question of Spain and Portugal, and the progress of democracy in some of the Swiss cantons, are of much more importance to Austria than the destinies of Syria, or the hereditary government of the Pacha of Egypt. The day will come, and that perhaps sooner than Austria desires, when the increasing power of Russia in the east and south of Europe, as well as in Asia, must attract the attention, and engage the mind, of the Court of Vienna; but, we repeat, for the present she is more alive to the events in Western and Central Europe, than to those of the East or of the South.

The present state of the Eastern question now opens broadly to our view. Russia requires that the treaty of Unkiar Skelessi shall remain intact. England and France desire its modification. Austria looks on, not with indifference, but with a mind

preoccupied by other more pressing interests. Turkey feels that her existence depends on the annulling of the treaty of Kutahia. Egypt is prepared to risk all her future hopes and present greatness in the defence of that treaty, and in the retention of Syria. The English Government wishes to secure to itself the favour of Mehemet Ali, and his friendship in our overland arrangements for India, by promising him that the throne of Egypt shall be hereditary in his family. As the price of this negotiation, it has obtained a treaty of commerce, which will be a dead letter, and has the adjournment, for the moment at least, of the Pacha's intention of declaring Egypt and Syria independent of the Porte. But this adjournment is only momentary; and Mehemet Ali, since his return to Alexandria from the gold mines of Fachiangora, has declared, "that from the day that the Porte shall attack his power in Syria, he will proclaim the independence of Egypt." France has acquiesced in the hereditary demand of Mehemet Ali, but has protested against the notion of the independence of the Pacha from the suzeraineté of the Sultan; and even at the price of her support to the hereditary question of Egypt, she has insisted on a treaty of commerce, and on the payment by the Pacha of the khazneh or tribute to the Porte. The payment of the khazneh has, however, been refused by the Pacha within the last few weeks-and Mehemet Ali replied to the Consul-General of Russia, when charged to press this payment upon him, "That under present circumstances, the Sultan might wait for the payment of the tribute, since, as the Porte had manifested its hostile intentions towards Egypt, it would be impolitic on his part to supply him with the means of realizing more promptly his inimical designs."

But what were these hostile inten tions of the Porte towards the Pacha, which have led the latter to make this declaration? Let us see. If we strip of all its verbiage and repetitions the intelligence we have received for some weeks past from Alexandria, Aleppo, Beyruth, and Constantinople, it amounts to this, that a large body of the Turkish army, without any apparent or satisfactory motive, has crossed the Euphrates at Byr, on

the confines of the Syrian frontiers, and has, by this unaccounted-for act, demonstrated the well-known desire of the Ottoman Porte to regain possession of Syria. The Pacha of Bagdad is thought to act in concert with the Sultan; and Ibrahim Pacha is so satisfied of the hostile designs of the Turkish Government, that he has concentrated all his Syrian troops in the environs of Aleppo, and is preparing for the attack which he expects will be made upon him. Thus Turkey, ranged in battle along the Euphrates, from the Persian Gulf to Asia Minor, is presumed to have the design of attacking Egypt by her Eastern flank. It is a promised renewal of the old conflict between the Arab tribes and those of Upper Asia-between Cambyses and Egypt-between Bagdad and Cairo in the middle ages; only that, in this immemorial conflict be. tween the Euphrates and the Nile-in this dispute for the possession of Syria and Lebanon, when the Euphrates has seen ranged on her banks the tribes from Upper Asia, savage and uncivilized as they have been, the Euphrates has ordinarily triumphed. But when these Turkish, Median, or Scythian tribes, or by whatever other name history has called them, have passed too long time at Bagdad, at Persepolis, or at Babylon, where they have lost their mountain and active rudeness, and their primitive energy, victory has been uncertain--and they have been often defeated. To-day, in the divided state of the Turkish empire, the influence of Russia in the Ottoman army, and when that army is half-civilized and half-barbarous, all the chances of success are in favour of Egypt. Mehemet Ali and his son Ibrahim are aware of this - fully aware; and although, in obedience to Russia, France, and Great Britain, they have promised not to commence the attack on the Turkish troops so assembled on the extreme frontiers of the dominions ceded to Egypt by the treaty of Kutahia, still Egyptian forces continue to concentrate in the environs of Aleppo, and the cry of Ibrahim in Syria is, "To arms!" "To arms!" And what do the Syrians reply to the demand? They fly from Aleppo-rush from Ibrahimand sigh for any deliverance from their Egyptian task-masters.

Before we proceed finally to ana

lyze the points at issue, and the proposed modes of resolving the various difficulties in this Eastern question, we must be allowed to approach with sacred awe and holy veneration the pages of prophecy, and the declarations of holy writ. The most clear and indubitable prophecy relating to the decay and gradual downfal of the Turkish empire, and admitted as such by all Christian theologians of all Christian countries, is to be found in the 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th, and 16th verses of the 16th chapter of the Revelation of St John the Divine. After having, in the 10th and 11th verses, announced that the 5th vial is poured out-in which the votaries of Papaсу are represented in a distressed and agonized condition-(under which vial we are now living)-and after having emblematically described the hatred of Papal Rome to that increasing and irresistible progress of knowledge, which demonstrates the absurdities and errors of the Papal religion, without producing reformation and repentance, the inspired writer proceeds as follows:

" And the sixth angel poured out his vial upon the great river Euphrates; and the water thereof was dried up, that the way of the kings of the East might be prepared. And I saw three unclean spirits like frogs come out of the mouth of the dragon, and out of the mouth of the beast, and out of the mouth of the false prophet. For they are the spirits of devils, wo working miracles which go forth unto the kings of the earth, and of the whole world, to gather them to the battle of that great day of God Almighty. Behold, I come as a thief. Blessed is he that watcheth, and keepeth his ground, lest he walk naked, and they see his shame. And he gathered them together into a place called in the Hebrew tongue Armageddon."

Had any doubts been entertained, by the learned and pious members of the orthodox and protestant churches as to the meaning of this prophecy, we should have more than hesitated as to introducing it into this political investigation; but as its applicability to the decay of the Turkish empire has been universally admitted, we have not dared to banish from our contemplations this prediction of sacred writ.

The learned and profound Towns

end, whose "New Testament arranged in chronological and historical order," is at once a magnificent present made to the Church of England, by one of her most enlightened and devoted sons, and an offering of no mean value made to the whole of Christendom, thus entitles the five verses we have just cited;

"The sixth vial is poured out. By this time the end of the 1260 years approaches the emblems under this vial represent the nearer, though still gradual downfal of the Turkish empire, the preparations for the restora. tion of the Jews, and the commencement of the great confederacy of the anti-christian powers against the Church of Christ in Palestine, under the influence of evil principles or false religions."

It would lead us too far from our immediate subject of contemplation, to relate at any length the causes of the origin, progress, and suspension of the conquests of Mahomet; its subsequent temporary revival, the entire loss of its political power, as the dangerous rival of its neighbours, and its present increasing weakness, by the gradual separation and independence of its fairest provinces. But the facts are indubitable, and some of them have often been referred to in the preceding observations. Our writers on prophecy have shown the great probability, that as these two masses of error arose together, their power will also be destroyed at the same time, when the prophetic period of 1260 years, which commenced in the year 606, will have elapsed. We are not desirous, however, in this treatise, of resting any argument on these interpretations. The wise and the good have been unanimous in their verdict, and we bow to their decision. Time and history, however, are the only certain interpreters of prophecy; and though the declining power of the Mohammedan apostasy undoubtedly sanctions this hypothesis, yet the reviving influence of the unscriptural errors and political power of Papacy excites at once our sorrow and surprise, and compels us, if not to hesitate as to the desired interpretation, still to with. hold our full assent, until the veil is yet more withdrawn from the future, and until the passage we have cited shall more clearly exposed, by opening

VOL. XLVI. NO. CCLXXXV,

ven.

facts and coming realities. Africa and the East was still lying prostrate before the altars of the dark idolatries of their fathers; but the voice of England was heard in the recesses of their groves-it has resounded through their temples their gods are trembling in their shrines and Dagon is falling before the ark of Jehovah, and the crescent is waning as the cross advances. The eventual conversion of the Jews-the final overthrow of the Mohammedan power in the East-the subversion of Popery, the apostasy of the West, and of idolatry and infidelity over the whole world, must be anticipated by every believer in the revelation of God to man. But it is not for man-weakly, feeble, ignorant man, to attempt to lift the veil which his Maker has placed before the future; nor can we know through what variety of untried ways it may please the author of our faith that the visible Church shall pass, in its way to heaThe Millennium, or universal reign of virtue, is the most rational opinion which a man can form who believes in a Providence, and is satisfied of the true Christian doctrine of the original dignity and present degra dation of man as a spiritual though fallen being. The blood of the atonement cannot have been shed in vain. The revolted province of Earth must be recovered from the prince of darkness to the dominion of the King of kings. The time must arrive, when the progress of knowledge shall have banished ignorance; and the influence of holiness and virtue be more prevalent than that of wickedness and vice. Then will the perfection of the human race be completed, and evil be overruled by good. Then the human race shall have attained to the highest state of good which this lower existence can afford them; and after the object of man's creation shall have thus been answered, and the tree of life bloom again in this paradise, where it was first planted, the fulness of time will have come, when the enlarged and purified faculties of man shall be prepared for a higher state of existence; and the heaven and the earth shall pass away, but the word of these prophecies shall last for ever, though clouds and darkness and thick darkness may veil his glory from both the reason and the curiosity of man.

H

We shall abstain from adding another line to the prophetic portion of this Eastern question.

We approach the ermination of our review of the past and present state of the Eastern question. We will resumei t rapidly: and look at the prospects of the future.

First, Is there now to be immediate war between the Pacha of Egypt and Syria and the Sultan Mahmoud? This is doubtful. The Turkish troops are on neutral ground, or on territory considered as such for a long period of time. Turkey is only kept in check by the fear of Russia; Russia is not anxious to press an immediate dé. nouement, as she always prefers to be occupied with the affairs of the East, when western Europe is engaged with her own affairs.

Second, Is the Pacha of Egypt to be allowed to retain the advantages secured to him by the treaty of Kutahia? Is Syria to continue to be a portion of his dominions? Russia is opposed to this arrangement. So is the Porte. But France, England, and Austria, insist on the status quo. The Packs, far from consenting to abandon Syria, is perpetually extending hi seonquests; and as Russia indulges hope that eventually she shall case dissensions and jealousies between the British and Egyptian governments respecting the overland route to India and the Red Sea, she regards the progress of the Pacha in Syria as an interested, but not an angry spectator.

Third, Is the demand of the Pacha of Egypt to secure to his children, and his children's children, the throne of that country and of Syria, to be conceded by the powers of Europe, and by the Ottoman Porte? This is, after all, the most pressing and important question to be decided. If in the affirmative, then subject to what conditions? If in the negative, then a war between Mehemet and Mahmoud is inevitable.

Fourth, Is the Pacha of Egypt to be suffered to continue to refuse the payment of the khazneh, or tribute to the Porte? If the payment shall be withheld much longer, the Russian Government will aid the Sultan in an attempt to recover it. If it shall be paid, by that payment Mehemet will still admit himself to be only the Pacha

of the Porte, subject to his orders and to his control.

Fifth, Is the Pacha of Egypt to be allowed to proclaim the independence of that country, and to found with that and Syria an independent and powerful empire? This question is wholly unconnected with that of the hereditary succession to the throne of Egypt being vested in his family. The Porte is opposed to both. So is Russia. England, France, and Austria oppose the independence of Egypt, but not the hereditary succession. They look only at the question of the khazneh or tribute money. A nominal suzeraineté on the part of the Porte, and a real tribute money annually paid to it by the Pacha and his descendants, would for the moment satisfy these powers. Yet what would that settlement amount to? To nothing more than the adjournment of the independence, with all the advantage in favour of the Pacha of his hereditary rights having been first recognised by Europe. But will the Ottoman Porte acknowledge the hereditary throne of Egypt, vested in the family of the Pacha? Never-unless Syria should be restored, and unless a treaty should be entered into between the Pacha and the Porte, under the guarantees of the allied powers of Europe, ineluding Russia, by which any attempt at an invasion of Syria by Egypt should be declared to amount to a de claration of war against the guaranteeing powers. But would the Pacha submit to those conditions? Never. " I was a Pacha without Syria," said Mehemet; "but with Syria I am a sovereign." Nor would Russia adhere to such a guarantee. She will do nothing, sign nothing, agree to nothing, which shall bind her to the policy of other governments in the affairs of the East. She assented to an expedition in favour of Greece, and joined that expedition, because its tendency was to weaken the Porte, and to increase the influence of the Czar in the north of Europe. But she will not sign any other treaty, or guarantee the fulfilment of any other arrangement, which shall diminish her influence over the Porte, and her independent and isolated position.

Sixth, Is the Treaty of Unkiar Skelessi to remain the bond of amity or of alliance between the Czar and